EU-Kommission: Konjunkturstimmung in Europa so gut wie seit 6 Jahren nicht mehr

FMW-Redaktion

Laut heutiger Veröffentlichung der EU-Kommission ist die wirtschaftliche Stimmungslage in der EU super. Zumindest ist man gut im Aufwind, wie der Chart zeigt. Der von Brüssel errechnete Stimmungsindikator (Economic Sentiment Indicator), der allgemein mit einem Wert von unter 107 erwartet wurde, liegt für Dezember 2016 bei 107,8 Punkten, und damit so hoch wie seit 6 Jahren nicht mehr. Um es zusammenzufassen: Alle Teilbereiche (siehe Charts) weisen eine steigende Stimmungslage auf, Industrie, Konsum, Bau, Dienstleistungen.

Überhaupt, der Report liest sich so als sei alles gut, super, phantastisch. Einziger Haken: Wenn es zu gut läuft, und auch die Inflation so schnell weiter steigt wie im Dezember (+1,1%), nicht dass die EZB dann auf die Idee kommt die Zinswende einzuläuten. Was ein zartes Pflänzchen wie die aufblühende Konjunktur in Europa bräuchte, wären weiterhin nicht vorhandene Zinsen für eine Gratis-Verschuldung, richtig? Da dürfte sich der Sparer freuen, falls die EZB zugunsten der „lieben Konjunktur“ den Leitzins weiterhin im Minus belassen sollte…

Die EU-Kommission im Originalzitat heute:

In December, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased by 1.2 points in the euro area (to 107.8), and by 1.8 points in the EU (to 109.1).

Euro area developments

Improved euro-area sentiment resulted from marked increases in confidence in retail trade, industry and among consumers and, to a lesser extent, in the services and construction sectors. Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI rose significantly in France (+2.0), the Netherlands (+1.9) and Germany (+1.6), while it remained stable in Italy (+0.0) and fell in Spain (-2.2). Increasing industry confidence (+1.2) resulted from a marked increase in managers‘ production expectations and improved assessments of overall order books and the stocks of finished products. The upbeat signals were echoed in the questions not included in the confidence indicator, with managers‘ assessment of the past production increasing strikingly and their views on export order books also improving.

Improvements in services confidence (+0.7) resulted from managers‘ significantly better assessment of the past business situation and, to a lesser extent, past demand, partly offset by mildly deteriorating demand expectations. Consumer confidence brightened markedly (+1.1) thanks to consumers‘ significantly improved expectations regarding future unemployment and more positive views on the future general economic situation and their own future financial situation. Expectations concerning households‘ savings remained broadly stable. The strong increase in retail trade confidence (+1.7) was fuelled by significantly brighter views on the present business situation and a slightly more positive assessment of the volume of stocks, while managers‘ business expectations remained broadly unchanged. Continued growth in construction confidence (+0.8) was attributable to managers‘ significantly higher employment expectations, while their assessment of the level of order books deteriorated.

Finally, the strong rise (+2.7) in financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) resulted from improved appraisals of the past business situation and, to a lesser extent, expected demand, while managers‘ assessment of the past demand remained unchanged. Employment plans saw a significant upward revision in construction, while they remained broadly unchanged in industry and worsened in the services and retail trade sectors. Selling price expectations increased markedly in retail trade, while they remained broadly unchanged in industry and construction and decreased slightly in services. However consumers‘ price expectations increased significantly in December.