Deutsche Bank: der nächste Absturz nach Volkswagen?

FMW-Redaktion

Die Deutsche Bank hat gestern eine saftige Gewinnwarnung ausgesprochen und schreibt im dritten Quartal eine Verlust von 6,2 Milliarden Euro nach Steuern. Das hat den markt überrascht – obwohl damit zu rechnen war, dass der neue CO-CEO John Cryan zeitnah die Bilanz reinigen will. Aber das Problem ist vor allem die Abschreibung des Geschäfts- oder Firmenwerts im Investmentbanking und im Privatkundengeschäft von rund 5,8 Milliarden Euro (aufgrund höhere regulatorische Kapitalanforderungen für diesen Bereich) – und das war definitiv so nicht erwartet. Erwartet dagegen waren die Rückstellungen von fünf Milliarden Euro für die vielen Rechtsstreitigkeiten der Bank.

Die Aktie eröffnet schwächer, aber doch ist doch nicht so heftig unter Druck wie aufgrund der vorbörslichen Indikation zu erwarten war:

600 Millionen Euro entfallen auf Abschreibungen des 20%-Anteils an der China’s Huaxia Bank Co. Die Deutsche Bank “no longer considers this stake to be strategic.” Bums! Im Klratext heißt das: wir werden unseren Anteil baldmöglichst verkaufen. Damit wäre das Kapitel China für die Deutsche Bank beendet. Derzeit wird der Wert der Beteiligung mit mickrigen 3,5 Millionen Dollar angegeben.

Co-CEO John Cyran will sich nun „persönlich dafür einsetzen“ die Interessen der Mitarbeiter und der Aktionäre fair zu berücksrichtigen. Dazu Cyran: „Während sich Überlegungen hinsichtlich der Vergütung nicht allein auf die Finanzergebnisse dieses Jahres stützen, erwarten unsere Aktionäre zu Recht, dass die Mitarbeiter einen Teil der Belastung tragen.“ Für Mitarbeiter der Deutschen Bank bedeutet das Boni-Kürzungen in bislang nicht bekannter Höhe. Aber für die Märkte wichtig ist vor allem die Kürzung der Dividende (derzeit nocch 75 Cents pro Aktie) – oder sogar deren Streichung. Denn viele Fonds könnten dann die Aktien der Deutschen Bank nicht mehr kaufen, weil in ihren Anlagerichtlinien festgelegt ist, nur Aktien mit Dividenden-Ausschüttung kaufen zu können.

Endgültige Zahlen für das ritte Quartal bringt die Bank erst am 29.Oktober. Aber die Mitteilung John Cyrans an die Mitarbeiter gestern Abend, nachdem die Mombe geplatzt war, erinnert doch sehr an die Vorgänge bei Volkswagen – auch die Wolfsburger hatten sich an die Mitarbeiter gewendet.

Hier der Brief von John Cyran an die Mitarbeiter der Deutschen Bank von gestern Abend:

Dear Colleagues,

Today we announced to the market some new important financial information.The news is not good, and I expect a number of you will be very disappointed by it. We expect to report a sizable loss for the third quarter. This expected loss is primarily driven by three items which together total approximately EUR 7.6 billion.

First, we have written down approximately EUR 5.8 billion in goodwill and other intangible assets in our Corporate Banking & Securities (CB&S) and Private & Business Clients (PBC) operating segments. These assets were booked in the past when we acquired businesses for more than the market value of their respective net assets. The relevant historical acquisitions include those of Bankers Trust in 1999 and Deutsche Postbank in 2010.

As we review our financial plans in preparation for the announcement of further details of Strategy 2020, which we plan to make on 29 October, we updated the valuations of our businesses that have goodwill and intangible assets. We found that the resulting valuations no longer support the carrying values on our balance sheet. As a consequence we have impaired all of the goodwill held in CB&S and PBC.

Second, we have revalued our 19.99% stake in the Chinese company Hua Xia Bank. The revaluation is driven by the decision no longer to consider this stake strategic for our group. This has led to an impairment in our carrying value by approximately EUR 0.6 billion.

Finally, we currently expect provisions for regulatory and litigation matters of approximately EUR 1.2 billion for the third quarter. This cost may be affected by further events before we finalise the amount for our third quarter results on 29 October. Based on this, the total charge for litigation and related matters in 2015 to date is expected to be approximately EUR 4 billion. As I have mentioned to you before, I would expect litigation costs and charges to continue to burden us in future quarters.

Based on these items, Deutsche Bank expects to report a third quarter income before income taxes (IBIT) loss of approximately EUR 6.0 billion and a net loss of approximately EUR 6.2 billion. For the first nine months of 2015, the IBIT loss would be approximately EUR 3.3 billion and the net loss approximately EUR 4.8 billion.

Excluding the impairment of goodwill and intangible assets, we expect a third quarter IBIT loss of approximately 0.2 billion and a net loss of approximately 0.4 billion, largely reflecting the litigation provisions and write-down related to Hua Xia Bank. However, on this basis we expect the bank to remain profitable for the first nine months of the year with approximately EUR 2.5 billion of IBIT and net income of approximately EUR 0.9 billion.

The write-downs related to goodwill, intangible assets, and Hua Xia do not significantly impact our regulatory capital ratios. We therefore expect to report a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio for the third quarter of approximately 11%, notwithstanding the adoption in the quarter of some stricter rules relating to our regulatory capital known as Prudential Valuation.

Also, as part of the planning for the implementation of Strategy 2020, the Management Board will recommend a reduction or possible elimination of the Deutsche Bank common share dividend for the fiscal year 2015.

The write-downs and dividend recommendation that we announced today will, of course, have to be factored in some way into our upcoming decisions on variable compensation for the year. While compensation considerations are not based on this year’s financial results alone, our shareholders will rightly expect employees to share something of the burden. Having said that, you have my personal commitment to try to achieve a fair balance between staff and shareholder interests. No decisions have been made on compensation and we will only make these once we have a better feel for the likely overall financial outcome for the bank for the full year.

In my letter to you on my first day in this role, I said that I would seek to improve our internal communication by speaking directly to you. I also did say that I was not expecting all would be sweetness and light in the coming months.

At the end of this month, when we plan to inform the market of further details of how we intend to implement the six key decisions of Strategy 2020, I will provide you with a thorough briefing on our plans. In the meantime, I thank you for your commitment and focus as we seek to build a better Deutsche Bank.