FMW-Redaktion
EZB-Direktor Vitor Constancio hat heute bei der „Financial Stability Conference“ in Berlin über die Geldpolitik der EZB gesprochen. Eine seiner Kernaussagen war, dass noch kein zusätzliches QE (Anleihekaufprogramm) innerhalb der EZB beschlossen wurde. Alles sei noch offen. Und es gäbe durch das aktuelle QE auch noch keine Überhitzung von Marktbewertungen in der Eurozone.
Hier ein Auszug aus dem Redetext:
„For all these reasons the ECB has decided a quantitative objective with an inflation rate for the euro area of below but close to 2%. This objective guarantees an appropriate buffer to counter the above-mentioned drawbacks of very low inflation or even deflationary tendencies. In order to bring inflation rates closer to the stated objective of price stability over the medium-term, and in order to support the aggregate recovery our monetary policy is continuing its accommodative stance. Our main policy rates will stay low for a prolonged period of time, in line with our forward guidance and the asset purchase programmes will keep our balance sheet expanding until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. Moreover, in the past months, downside risks to the global economy have increased, due notably to the increasing weakness in emerging markets. As indicated at last week’s Governing Council meeting, the ECB is closely monitoring these developments and stands ready to act with all available instruments to deliver on its mandate.“
Was man zwischen den Zeilen lesen kann? Ein weiteres oder erweitertes QE wird kommen, aber nicht mit der offiziellen Begründung der Eurozonen-Wirtschaft ginge es zu schlecht, sondern wg. der schlechten Lage in den Schwellenländern und dem niedrigen Ölpreis werde die Eurozone von außen negativ beeinflusst, und deswegen müsse man dann wohl das QE ausweiten. Denn wie Mario Draghi selbst letzte Woche sagte: Das QE funktioniert wunderbar und in Euroland läuft alles prächtig!
Hier noch ein Auszug zur laut Constancio nicht vorhandenen Überbewertung von Vermögenswerten in der Eurozone:
„Euro area equity prices are still recovering from the summer turmoil. Prior to that, they had been fairly valued with a price-earnings ratio well below the values seen in the US. In the corporate bond markets, the increase in credit risk premia observed in the past few months has eased overvaluation concerns somewhat, with corporate spreads moving closer to their long-run averages. When examining excess bond premia, standard valuation models for euro area non-financial corporations point to fairly valued, or even slightly under-priced, corporate bond market valuations. Term premia in sovereign bond markets are somewhat stretched, but this is a direct and desired consequence of the monetary policy action. As for the real estate market, the situation is quite differentiated across member states. There are growing signs that the recovery in property prices is becoming more broad-based across countries. In general, there is no evidence of generalised overvaluations, although some local developments warrant close monitoring.
This situation in euro area asset markets couples with a still subdued credit cycle. While credit to the real economy is certainly recovering, all countries experience cyclical real credit growth rates below their long-term average. Estimates of the credit-to-GDP gap, a measure of the deviation of credit from its longer run norm are negative for nearly all euro area countries and are below 10% in most euro area countries. In other words, we are still far away from a situation of excessive credit growth and asset price misalignments – very different from a credit-driven asset price boom, which has preceded many financial crises of the past.“
Auch erwähnt Constancio recht positiv, dass sich die Finanzierung der europäischen Volkswirtschaften sich weg bewege von Banken hin zu Investmentfonds etc. Diese „Finanzierer hinter den Banken“ würden die Finanzierung der europäischen Wirtschaft auf eine breitere Basis stellen:
„In recent years, financial activity and the financing of the economy has been increasingly shifting to financial institutions beyond banks. For example, the investment fund sector has been growing strongly, both because of surging inflows and rising asset prices. As of the first quarter of this year, investment funds in the euro area are providing €1.3 trillion in credit to financial firms, €1 trillion to governments, and more than €300 billion to non-financial firms in the euro area. They also invested in equities and other non-financial assets, including real estate, both within the euro area and outside. The non-euro area assets make up about 40% of investment funds balance sheets. In short, investment funds have an increasingly important role in funding the euro area domestic economy and for channelling investments abroad. I see great benefits in broadening the funding base of the European economy, where market-based financing complements the traditional banking system.“
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Quelle: EZB
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