Konjunkturdaten

Aktuell: Anstehende US-Hausverkäufe besser, US-Verbrauchervertrauen euphorisch

Die anstehenden US-Hausverkäufe (pending home sales; März) sind mit +3,8% besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war +1,1%; Vormonat war +1,0%). Zum Vorjahresmonat sind die anstehenden Verkäufe um 1,2% gefallen. Damit fielen die Verkäufe zum Vorjahresmonat nun zum 15. Mal in Folge!

Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board; April) ist mit 129,2 deutlich besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 126,0; Vormonat war 124,1). Bester Wert seit Februar.

Dazu schreibt das Conference Board, das die Daten erhebt:

„The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved in April, after decreasing in March. The Index now stands at 129.2 (1985=100), up from 124.2 in March. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased, from 163.0 to 168.3. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 98.3 last month to 103.0 this month.

“Consumer Confidence partially rebounded in April, following March’s decline, but still remains below levels seen last Fall,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index, which had decreased sharply last month, improved in April, as did consumers’ short-term outlook. Overall, consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace into the summer months. These strong confidence levels should continue to support consumer spending in the near-term.”

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 18.

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in April. Those stating business conditions are “good” increased from 34.7 percent to 37.3 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” decreased from 12.4 percent to 11.7 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also more upbeat. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased from 42.5 percent to 46.8 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 13.8 percent to 13.3 percent.

Consumers’ short-term outlook also improved in April. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will be better six months from now increased from 17.2 percent to 19.9 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen declined from 10.0 percent to 9.1 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was more favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 16.8 percent to 17.2 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased from 14.3 percent to 13.2 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement was virtually unchanged at 21.5 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined, from 7.4 percent to 7.0 percent.“



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