FMW-Redaktion
Die Bank of Canada hat soeben verkündet den Leitzins unverändert bei 1,00% zu belassen. Erwartet wurden 1,00% bei bislang vorhandenem Level von ebenfalls 1,00%. Aber halt. Die Erwartungen wurden erfüllt, aber dann so eine Reaktion beim kanadischen Dollar? Denn der wertet gerade spürbar ab! US-Dollar vs CAD steigt in einer allerersten Reaktion (ALGOS) von 1,2661 auf 1,2730.
UPDATE 16:17 Uhr
Man werde sich bei der weiteren Beobachtung der Lage „zurückhaltend“ verhalten, so die BoC. Das bedeutet wohl: So schnell erst mal kein weiterer Zinsschritt! Das schwächt den CAD. Ach ja… lesen Sie selbst, die BoC sieht zwar die überhitzende Konjunktur (totale Kreditblase), aber man schreibt gegen Ende des Textes sinngemäß: Alles halb so schlimm, läuft ja irgendwie, wir haben das schon im Blick!
Zitat BoC:
Recent Canadian data are in line with October’s outlook, which was for growth to moderate while remaining above potential in the second half of 2017. Employment growth has been very strong and wages have shown some improvement, supporting robust consumer spending in the third quarter. Business investment continued to contribute to growth after a strong first half, and public infrastructure spending is becoming more evident in the data. Following exceptionally strong growth earlier in 2017, exports declined by more than was expected in the third quarter. However, the latest trade data support the MPR projection that export growth will resume as foreign demand strengthens. Housing has continued to moderate, as expected.
Inflation has been slightly higher than anticipated and will continue to be boosted in the short term by temporary factors, particularly gasoline prices. Measures of core inflation have edged up in recent months, reflecting the continued absorption of economic slack. Revisions to past quarterly national accounts have resulted in a higher level of GDP. However, this is unlikely to have significant implications for the output gap because the revisions also imply a higher level of potential output. Meanwhile, despite rising employment and participation rates, other indicators point to ongoing – albeit diminishing – slack in the labour market.
Based on the outlook for inflation and the evolution of the risks and uncertainties identified in October’s MPR, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. While higher interest rates will likely be required over time, Governing Council will continue to be cautious, guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.
Kommentare lesen und schreiben, hier klicken
