Aktuell: Bank of England erhöht Leitzins! Intern Druck zu noch mehr

City of London

Die Bank of England hat soeben mitgeteilt, dass sie sich mit 5 gegen 4 Stimmen im Notenbankrat dazu entschlossen hat den Leitzins von 0,25 Prozent auf 0,50 Prozent anzuheben. Interessant: Die Minderheit war sogar dafür den Zins auf 0,75 Prozent anzuheben. Am 16. Dezember erfolgte bereits eine Zinsanhebung um 15 Basispunkte.

Man stimmte im Rat der Bank of England einstimmig dafür, dass man nun damit beginnt den Bestand an Käufen von britischen Staatsanleihen, die durch die Ausgabe von Zentralbankreserven finanziert werden, zu reduzieren, indem man fällig werdende Vermögenswerte nicht mehr reinvestiert. Man stimmte außerdem einstimmig dafür, dass die Bank of England damit beginnt den Bestand an auf Pfund Sterling lautenden Käufen von Unternehmensanleihen von Nicht-Finanzunternehmen mit Investment-Grade-Rating, die durch die Ausgabe von Zentralbankreserven finanziert werden, zu verringern, indem sie fällig werdende Vermögenswerte nicht mehr reinvestiert und ein Programm zum Verkauf von Unternehmensanleihen durchführt, das frühestens gegen Ende 2023 abgeschlossen sein soll und den Bestand an Käufen von Unternehmensanleihen vollständig abbauen soll.

Pfund vs US-Dollar reagiert aktuell mit einer Aufwertung von 1,3561 auf 1,3613.

Naeem Aslam, Chief Market Analyst bei Avatrade, sagt dazu in einem aktuellen Kurz-Kommentar, dass das britische Pfund nach der Entscheidung der Bank of England in die Höhe geschossen ist, da die Händler nun wissen würden, dass die BOE nicht in der Stimmung ist die Dinge so zu belassen, wie sie sind. Die BOE mache einfach keine halben Sachen und habe heute gezeigt, dass sie die Inflation unter Kontrolle bringen will. Zwei aufeinanderfolgende Zinserhöhungen würden Händlern die klare Anweisung geben, dass das Pfund Sterling die Währung ist, auf die sie setzen wollen, da sie mindestens zwei weitere Zinserhöhungen in diesem Jahr erwarten.

ÜHier der Erläuterungstext der Bank of England im Wortlaut:

The Committee’s updated central projections for activity and inflation are set out in the accompanying February Monetary Policy Report. The projections are conditioned on a market-implied path for Bank Rate that rises to around 1½% by the middle of 2023. Wholesale energy prices are assumed to follow their respective futures curves for the first six months of the projections and remain constant beyond that, in contrast to futures curves, which are downward sloping over coming years. There are material risks around this assumption.

Global and UK activity returned to their pre-Covid-19 (Covid) levels towards the end of last year. The emergence of the Omicron variant is expected to have depressed activity somewhat in December and January. But its economic impact is likely to be limited and of short duration, and UK GDP is expected to recover in February and March such that output returns to its pre-pandemic level once again by the end of the first quarter. The Labour Force Survey unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in the three months to November, and is expected to fall further in the near term, to 3.8% in 2022 Q1.

Beyond the near term, UK GDP growth is expected to slow to subdued rates. The main reason for that is the adverse impact of higher global energy and tradable goods prices on UK real aggregate income and spending. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5% and excess supply builds to around 1% by the end of the forecast period.

Underlying earnings growth is estimated to have remained above pre-pandemic rates, and is expected to strengthen over the coming year, to around 4¾%. This is consistent with the results of the Bank’s Agents’ annual pay survey, with the tight labour market, and with some temporary upward pressure on wage settlements from higher price inflation.

Twelve-month CPI inflation rose from 5.1% in November to 5.4% in December, almost 1 percentage point higher than expected at the time of the November Report. Inflation is expected to increase further in coming months, to close to 6% in February and March, before peaking at around 7¼% in April. This projected peak is around 2 percentage points higher than expected in the November Report. The projected overshoot of inflation relative to the 2% target mainly reflects global energy and tradable goods prices. The further rise in energy futures prices meant that Ofgem’s utility price caps were expected to be substantially higher at the reset in April 2022. Core goods CPI inflation is also expected to rise further, due to the impact of global bottlenecks on tradable goods prices.

In the February Report central projection, upward pressures on CPI inflation are expected to dissipate over time, as global energy prices are assumed to remain constant after six months, and as global bottlenecks ease and tradable goods prices fall back a little. Underlying wage growth is also projected to ease from 2023, as the labour market loosens gradually and inflation declines. Conditioned on the rising market-implied path for Bank Rate and the MPC’s current forecasting convention for future energy prices, CPI inflation is projected to fall back to a little above the 2% target in two years’ time and to below the target by a greater margin in three years.

In an alternative scenario that is conditioned on energy prices following forward curves throughout the forecast period and as set out in the February Report, excess supply is around ½ percentage point lower in the medium term than in the MPC’s central projection, and CPI inflation is around ¾ percentage point below the 2% target in two and three years’ time.

The MPC’s remit is clear that the inflation target applies at all times, reflecting the primacy of price stability in the UK monetary policy framework. The framework also recognises that there will be occasions when inflation will depart from the target as a result of shocks and disturbances. In the recent unprecedented circumstances, the economy has been subject to very large and repeated shocks. In particular, should recent movements prove persistent, the sharp rises in prices of global energy and tradable goods of which the United Kingdom is a net importer will necessarily weigh on UK real aggregate income and spending. This is something monetary policy is unable to prevent. The role of monetary policy is to ensure that, as such a real economic adjustment occurs, it does so consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably in the medium term, while minimising undesirable volatility in output.

Given the current tightness of the labour market and continuing signs of greater persistence in domestic cost and price pressures, the Committee judges that an increase in Bank Rate of 0.25 percentage points is warranted at this meeting.

Consistent with the MPC’s guidance set out in the August 2021 Report, the Committee agrees at this meeting that the Bank of England should cease to reinvest any future maturities falling due from its stock of UK government bond purchases. This reflects the MPC’s intention to reduce its holdings of government bonds in a gradual and predictable manner.

In addition, the Committee agrees that the Bank of England should cease to reinvest any maturities falling due from its stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, and that it should initiate a programme of corporate bond sales to be completed no earlier than towards the end of 2023 that should unwind fully the stock of corporate bond purchases.

The decision to initiate the programme of corporate bond sales reflects the specific characteristics of the corporate bond market and the MPC’s involvement in it, and should not be taken as a signal regarding the commencement, scale or duration of any potential future UK government bond sales programme.

The Committee reaffirms that it will consider beginning the process of actively selling UK government bonds only once Bank Rate has risen to at least 1%, and depending on economic circumstances at the time. The Committee also reaffirms its preference in most circumstances to use Bank Rate as its active policy tool when adjusting the stance of monetary policy.

The extent of any further tightening in monetary policy will depend on the medium-term prospects for inflation. The MPC judges that, if the economy develops broadly in line with the February Report central projections, some further modest tightening in monetary policy is likely to be appropriate in the coming months. The Committee continues to judge that there are two-sided risks around the medium-term inflation outlook, primarily from wage developments on the upside and from energy and global tradable goods prices on the downside. The Committee will update its assessment on the balance of the risks to medium-term inflation in light of the relevant data as they emerge.

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