Die Russische Zentralbank hat soeben verkündet den Leitzins von bislang 7,25% auf 7,50% zu erhöhen. Der Markt war eigentlich fest davon ausgegangen, dass der Leitzins bei 7,25% verbleibt. Externe Faktoren hätten laut aktueller Aussage der Notenbanker in Moskau die inflationären Risiken erhöht. Nach dieser Maßnahme geht man nun davon aus, dass die Inflation in Russland Ende 2018 zwischen 3,8% und 4,2% liegen wird, in 2019 zwischen 5% und 5,5%, und in 2020 bei 4%. In Sachen Ölpreis-Schwankungen, Gehältern und Änderungen im Konsumverhalten sehe man keine Veränderung in seinen bisherigen Erwartungen. Die Risiken blieben moderat.
Der russische Rubel reagiert aktuell mit einer Aufwertung. Der US-Dollar verliert gegen den Rubel von 68,33 auf jetzt 67,52. (im Chart USDRUB seit Ende August).
Hier auszugsweise im Wortlaut von der Central Bank of Russia:
Monetary conditions. Monetary conditions have slightly tightened under the influence of external factors. OFZ yields have seen a significant increase. Interest rates in the deposit and credit market are gaining momentum. The increase of the key rate will help maintain real interest rates on deposits in the positive territory, which will support the attractiveness of savings and the balanced growth in consumption.
Economic activity. Updated estimates for 2018 Q2 show that annual GDP growth stood at 1.9%, in line with Bank of Russia expectations. The Bank of Russia keeps unchanged its 2018 annual GDP growth forecast of 1.5-2%, which corresponds to the potential economic growth rate.
The economic growth forecast for 2019-2021, included in the baseline scenario, was updated to take into account changes in external conditions and the estimated influence of the set of fiscal and structural measures to be taken by 2024 on economic performance. In 2019, the forthcoming VAT increase might have a slight constraining effect on business activity, mostly in the beginning of the year. Newly attracted budgetary funds will be used to boost government spending, including spending on investments, as early as 2019. As a result, according to the Bank of Russia forecast, GDP growth in 2019 will range between 1.2% and 1.7%. The following years might see higher growth rates as planned structural measures are implemented.
Inflation risks. The balance of risks has further shifted towards proinflationary risks. Main risks stem from highly uncertain external conditions and their impact on financial markets.
Further yield growth in advanced economies, capital outflow from emerging markets together with geopolitical factors might cause volatility in financial markets to persist, and affect exchange rate and inflation expectations.
The Bank of Russia leaves mostly unchanged its estimates of risks associated with oil price volatility, wage movements and possible changes in consumer behaviour. These risks remain moderate.
The Bank of Russia will consider the necessity of further increases in the key rate, taking into account inflation and economic dynamics against the forecast, as well as risks posed by external conditions and the reaction of financial markets.
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