Wenn es dick kommt, kommt es gleich richtig dick: nachdem britische Banken heute einen veritablen Crash erlebten, gleichzeitig die in CDS eingepreiste Pleitewahrscheinlichkeit UKs stark steigt, während die Renditen für britische Anleihen stark sinken, hat die Ratingagentur S&P UK soeben von AAA auf AA abgestuft.
In der Begründung wird die durch den Brexit ausgelöste Verunsicherung als ausschlaggebend genannt:
„The downgrade reflects our view that the “leave” result in the U.K.’s referendum on the country’s EU membership („Brexit“) will weaken the predictability, stability, and effectiveness of policymaking in the U.K. and affect its economy, GDP growth, and fiscal and external balances. We have revised our view of the U.K.’s institutional assessment and we no longer consider it to be a strength in our assessment of the U.K.’s key rating factors. The downgrade also reflects what we consider enhanced risks of a marked deterioration of external financing conditions in light of the U.K.’s extremely elevated level of gross external financing requirements (as a share of current account receipts and usable reserves). The Brexit result could lead to a deterioration of the U.K.’s economic performance, including its large financial services sector, which is a major contributor to employment and public receipts. The result could also trigger a constitutional crisis if it leads to a second referendum on Scottish independence from the U.K.
We believe that the lack of clarity on these key issues will hurt confidence, investment, GDP growth, and public finances in the U.K., and put at risk important external financing sources vital to the financing of the U.K.’s large current account deficits (in absolute terms, the second-largest globally behind the U.S.). This includes the wholesale financing of the U.K.’s commercial banks, about half of which is denominated in foreign currency.
Brexit could also, over time, diminish sterling’s role as a global reserve currency. Uncertainty surrounding possibly long-lasting negotiations around what form the U.K.’s new relationship with the EU will look like will also pose risks, possibly leading to delays on capital expenditure in an economy that already stands out for its low investment/GDP ratio.“
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