Aktuell: US-Verbraucherstimmung stürzt ab, Kansas Fed Index mit Allzeititef

Der Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (April) stürzt mit -53 auf den tiefsten jemals gemessenen Stand (Vormonat war +2)

Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board; April) ist mit 86,9 etwas schwächer ausgefallen als ohnehin befürchtet (Prognose war 87,9; Vormonat war 120,4).

Dazu schreibt das Conference Board:

“Consumer confidence weakened significantly in April, driven by a severe deterioration in current conditions,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The 90-point drop in the Present Situation Index, the largest on record, reflects the sharp contraction in economic activity and surge in unemployment claims brought about by the COVID-19 crisis. Consumers’ short-term expectations for the economy and labor market improved, likely prompted by the possibility that stay-at-home restrictions will loosen soon, along with a re-opening of the economy. However, consumers were less optimistic about their financial prospects and this could have repercussions for spending as the recovery takes hold. The uncertainty of the economic effects of COVID-19 will likely cause expectations to fluctuate in the months ahead.”

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 17.

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions declined considerably in April. Those claiming business conditions are “good” decreased from 39.2 percent to 20.8 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased from 11.7 percent to 45.2 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the job market also eroded significantly from last month. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” decreased from 43.3 percent to 20.0 percent. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased from 13.8 percent to 33.6 percent.

Consumers, however, were somewhat optimistic about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 18.7 percent to 40.0 percent, however those expecting business conditions will worsen also increased, from 16.4 percent to 25.7 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was mixed. The proportion expecting more jobs rose from 16.9 percent to 41.0 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead also increased, from 17.6 percent to 20.8 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an increase declined from 20.0 percent to 16.7 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease rose from 10.1 percent to 18.5 percent.“

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