Konjunkturdaten

Aktuell: US-Verbraucherstimmung deutlich schwächer als erwartet – wo ist die Trump-Euphorie geblieben?

FMW-Redaktion

Die US-Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan (Erstveröffentlichung für Januar) ist mit 94,4 schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 97,0; Vormonat war 95,9).

Die Erwartungen liegen bei 84,8 (Prognose war 90,6; Vormonat war 84,3).

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 109,2 (Prognose war 115,5; Vormonat war 113,8).

Die Inflationserwartung steigt auf 2,8% (Vormonat 2,7%).

Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, der die Umfrage verantwortet:

„While the preliminary January reading for the Sentiment Index was largely unchanged from last month (-1.5%), consumers evaluated current economic conditions less favorably (-4.6%). This small decrease in current conditions produced a small overall decline. Importantly, the survey recorded persistent strength in personal finances and buying plans, while favorable levels of buying conditions for household durables have receded to preholiday levels in early January, largely due to less attractive pricing. The Expectations Index remained virtually unchanged at 84.8. Tax reform was spontaneously mentioned by 34% of all respondents; 70% of those who mentioned tax reform thought the impact would be positive, and 18% said it would be negative. The disconnect between the future outlook assessment and the largely positive view of the tax reform is due to uncertainties about the delayed impact of the tax reforms on the consumers. Some of the uncertainty is related to how much a cut or an increase people, especially high income households who live in high-tax states, face. Near and long term gas price expectations inched upward in early January but remained significantly below their peak. While long term inflation expectation remained at its 2017 average level and short term inflation expectation inched upward, consumers continued to remain very optimistic about the low national unemployment rate.“


Westfield Garden State Plaza is a mall in Paramus, New Jersey.
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