Die US-Verbraucherstimmung (April, 1.Veröffentlichung) ist mit 97,8 deutlich schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 100,6; Vormomat war 101,4).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 115,0 (Prognose war 120,0 Vormomat war auf Allzeithoch bei 121,2).
Die Erwartungen ebenfalls schwächer, sie liegen bei 86,8 (Prognose war 88,1; Vormonat war 88,8).
Ursache: Sorgen um Trumps Handelskrieg-Politik!
Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, der die Umfrage verantwortet:
„Consumer sentiment slipped in early April, largely reversing the gains recorded in the prior two months. The small decline was widely shared by all age and income subgroups and across all regions of the country. Importantly, confidence still remains relatively high, despite the recent losses that were mainly due to concerns about the potential impact of Trump’s trade policies on the domestic economy. Uncertainty surrounding the evolving trade policy has caused many small (and at times inconsistent) changes in expectations. Spontaneous references to trade policies were made by 29% of all consumers in early April, with nearly all the mentions negative (27% out of 29%). The Expectations Index was just 64.2 among those who made negative comments about trade policies, while among those who made no mention of trade policies, the Expectations Index was 93.9, a substantial difference. Consumers who negatively mentioned trade policies also anticipated that the year-ahead inflation rate would be 0.4 percentage points higher than among those who did not spontaneously mention Trump’s trade policies; there was a differential of 0.2 percentage points for long term inflation expectations. There were other factors responsible for the small overall April decline, the most important was the expectation of rising interest rates, which slightly slowed the anticipated pace of growth in the economy. Overall, the data are consistent with a growth rate of 2.7% in consumption from mid-2018 to mid-2019.“
Eine Mall in Paramus, New Jersey.
By The original uploader was Nightscream at English Wikipedia – Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons. Transfer was stated to be made by User:Strangnet., CC BY-SA 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3038023
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