Aktuell: US-Verbraucherstimmung mit purer Euphorie!

FMW-Redaktion

Die US-Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan liegt bei 101,1 (Vormonat war 95,1). Das ist der höchste Wert seit Anfang 2004! Dabei antworteten über 64% der Befragten, dass sie in den nächsten 12 Monaten höhere Aktienkurse erwarteten – ein neues Allzeithoch!

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 116,4 (Vormonat war 111,4).

Die Konjunkturerwartungen liegen bei 91,3 (Vormonat war 84,4)

Auffallend ist: alle Altersgruppen sind euphorisch, auch die Präferenz für Republikaner oder Demokraaten ist, anders als in den Monaten nach der Wahl, weniger wichtig geworden.

Dazu schreibt Richard Custin, der Chefvolkswirt der Umfrage, dass solche hohen Werte typisch seien für eine späte Aufschwungphase der Konjunktur – keiner rechne mit einem Abschwung:

„Consumer sentiment surged in early October, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004. The October gain was broadly shared, occurring among all age and income subgroups and across all partisan viewpoints. The data indicate a robust outlook for consumer spending that extends the current expansion to at least mid 2018, which would mark the 2nd longest expansion since the mid 1800’s.

While the early October surge indicates greater optimism about the future course of the economy, it also reflects an unmistakable sense among consumers that economic prospects are now about as good as could be expected. This „as good as it gets“ outlook is supported by a moderation in the expected pace of growth in both personal finances and the overall economy, accompanied by a growing sense that, even with this moderation, it would still mean the continuation of good economic times. Although such an outlook is typically recorded in the late phase of an expansion, its occurrence is independent of the ultimate length of an expansion. Indeed, nothing in the latest survey indicates that consumers anticipate an economic downturn anytime soon – which contrarians may consider a clear warning sign of trouble ahead. Nonetheless, consumers anticipate low unemployment, low inflation, small increases in interest rates, and most importantly, modest income gains in the year ahead. It is this acceptance of lackluster growth rates in personal income and in the overall economy that signifies that consumers have accepted, however reluctantly, limits on the pace of improving prospects for living standards.“