Die US-Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für Januar) ist mit 90,7 deutlich schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 97,0; Vormonat war 97,8).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage ebenfalls schwächer, sie liegt bei 110,0 (Prognose war 114,5; Vormonat war 116,1)
Die Konjunkturerwatung liegt bei 78,3 und damit weit unter der Erwartung (Prognose war 86,0; Vormonat war 87,0)
#UnitedStates Michigan 5 Year #Inflation Expectations Prel at 2.6% https://t.co/CYGdEm4wIG pic.twitter.com/U5ixrV90yc
— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) January 18, 2019
Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, der die Umfrage verantwortet:
„Consumer sentiment declined in early January to its lowest level since Trump was elected. The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014. The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact of tariffs, instabilities in financial markets, the global slowdown, and the lack of clarity about monetary policies. Aside from the direct economic impact from these various issues on the economy, the indirect effect meant that half of all consumers believed that these events would have a negative impact on Trump’s ability to focus on economic growth. While the January falloff in optimism is certainly consistent with a slowdown in the pace of growth, it does not yet indicate the start of a sustained downturn in economic activity. It is the strength in personal finances that will continue to support consumption expenditures at favorable levels in 2019. Nonetheless, consumers now sense a need to buttress their precautionary savings, which is typically done by reducing their discretionary spending. Evolving job and wage prospects, which were slightly weaker in early January, are critical to extending the current expansion.“
Von Andreas Faessler – Eigenes Werk, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=50681126
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Derart brillante Zahlen erklären natürlich die Dollarstärke gegenüber EUR, XAU und sogar GBP. Kommt hier die neue Börsenlogik (wer hat’s erfunden? Die Briten!) erneut zum Tragen? Oder sind es einfach nur die Nachrichten, dass die Busenfreunde USA und China nun zur Ultra-Supermacht fusionieren wollen ;)