FMW-Redaktion
Die US-Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan ist mit 95,3 etwas weniger schlecht ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 95,1; Vormonat war 96,8).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 113,9 (Vormonat war 110,9) – höchster Stand seit November 2000!
Die Erwartungen liegen dagegen nur bei 83,4 (Vormonat war 87,7) – vorwiegend, weil die Menschen negative Auwirkungen der Hurrikanes Harvey und Irma fürchten (siehe unten)!
Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, Chefvolkswirt der Umfrage:
„Consumer confidence edged downward in early September due to concerns over the outlook for the national economy. Consumers‘ assessments of current economic conditions improved, however, with the Current Conditions Index reaching the highest level since November of 2000. The two hurricanes had a greater impact on expected economic conditions. Across all interviews in early September, 9% spontaneously mentioned concerns that Harvey, Irma, or both, would have a negative impact on the overall economy. Among those who mentioned the hurricanes, the Sentiment Index was 80.2, while among those who did not spontaneously mention either hurricane, the Sentiment Index remained unchanged from last month at 96.8. Given the widespread devastation in Texas and Florida, it is not surprising to find these very negative initial reactions, nor would it be surprising if these negative assessments last longer than following most past hurricanes. While consumers anticipated slight increases in gas prices and a slightly higher overall inflation rate, those concerns were neutralized by the best assessments of their financial situation in more than a decade. Renewed gains in incomes as well as rising home and equity values have acted to counterbalance the negative impacts from the hurricanes. Given the current resilience of consumers, recent events are unlikely to derail confidence.“
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