Aktuell: US-Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan – Republikaner weniger euphorisch, Demokraten anhaltend pessimistisch

FMW-Redaktion

Die US-Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan (finale Veröffentlichung) ist mit 93,4 etwas besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 93,1; Vormonat war ebenfalls 93,1).

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 113,4, das ist der höchste Wert seit dem Jahr 2005 (Prognose war 112,9; Vormonat war 113,2).

Die Konjunkturerwartungen liegen bei 80,5 (Prognose war 80,4; Vormonat war 80,2).

Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, Chefvolkswirt der Umfrage, dass die Anhänger der Republikaner weniger euphorisch seien als zuvor, was aber eigentlich überrasche, sei der anhaltende Pessmimismus von Wählern der Demokraten:

„Consumer confidence remained largely unchanged at the same favorable level recorded at mid-month. The overall Sentiment Index has declined by 5.1 Index-points since the January peak, which was the highest figure in a dozen years. The relatively small decline still left the Sentiment Index higher in the first seven months of 2017 than in any other year since 2004. The size of the decline was tempered by record favorable views of Current Economic Conditions, which rose to its highest level since July of 2005. These gains were mainly due to improvements in consumers‘ personal finances. At the same time, consumers expressed less optimism about future prospects for the overall economy and for their own personal finances. The Expectations Index fell from 90.3 in January to a still positive 80.5 in July; if it continues to decline by another 10 points in the second half of 2017, the loss would become more worrisome. Moreover, while current conditions were judged strictly on the performance of the economy, expectations continue to be significantly influenced by partisanship: the difference on the Expectations Index between Democrats and Republicans was 45 Index-points (63.7 versus 108.7); among Independents, in contrast, the Expectations Index was exactly equal to the weighted difference between the partisan extremes (80.5). Importantly, the partisan gap has narrowed in the past six months, mostly due to Republicans tempering their optimism. The recent declines among Republicans were somewhat predictable, but the maintenance of extreme pessimism among Democrats is more surprising.“