Konjunkturdaten

Aktuell: US-Verbrauchervertrauen schwach – vor allem in Corona-Bundesstaaten

Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board; Juli) ist mit 92,6 schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 94,5; Vormonat war 98,3).

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 94,1 (Vormonat war 86,2).

Die Erwartungen liegen bei 91,5 (Vormonat war 106,0)

Dazu schreibt das Conference Board, das die Daten erhebt:

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 17.

“Consumer Confidence declined in July following a large gain in June,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index improved, but the Expectations Index retreated. Large declines were experienced in Michigan, Florida, Texas and California, no doubt a result of the resurgence of COVID-19. Looking ahead, consumers have grown less optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market and remain subdued about their financial prospects. Such uncertainty about the short-term future does not bode well for the recovery, nor for consumer spending.”

Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved in July. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” was relatively unchanged at 17.3 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased from 42.5 percent to 39.1 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was more favorable. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 20.5 percent to 21.3 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 23.3 percent to 20.0 percent.

Consumers, however, were less optimistic about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months declined from 42.4 percent to 31.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 15.2 percent to 19.3 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined from 38.4 percent to 30.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead increased from 14.4 percent to 20.3 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an increase was relatively unchanged at 15.1 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease rose from 14.1 percent to 15.0 percent.“



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