Konjunkturdaten

Aktuell: US-Verbrauchervertrauen sinkt deutlich wegen Volatilität an Finanzmärkten und government shutdown

Das US-Verbrauchvertrauen (Conference Board; Januar) ist mit 120,2 schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 124,7; Vormonat war 128,1, nun auf 126,6 nach unten revidiert). Das ist der tiefste Stand seit eineinhalb Jahren!
Ursache laut Conference Board: „financial market volatility and the government shutdown appear to have impacted consumers“

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 169,9 (Vormonat war 171,6, nun auf 169,6 nach unten revidert).

Dazu schreibt das Conference Board, das die Daten erhebt:

„Consumer Confidence declined in January, following a decrease in December,“ said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. „The Present Situation Index was virtually unchanged, suggesting economic conditions remain favorable. Expectations, however, declined sharply as financial market volatility and the government shutdown appear to have impacted consumers. Shock events such as government shutdowns (i.e. 2013) tend to have sharp, but temporary, impacts on consumer confidence. Thus, it appears that this month’s decline is more the result of a temporary shock than a precursor to a significant slowdown in the coming months.“

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was little changed in January. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are „good“ was virtually unchanged at 37.4 percent, while those saying business conditions are „bad“ decreased from 11.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was mixed. Those stating jobs are „plentiful“ increased from 45.5 percent to 46.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are „hard to get“ also increased, from 12.2 percent to 12.9 percent.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term future was more pessimistic in January. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 18.1 percent to 16.0 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 10.6 percent to 14.8 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 16.6 percent to 14.7 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased, from 14.6 percent to 16.5 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 22.4 percent to 18.2 percent, but the proportion expecting a decrease also declined, from 7.6 percent to 7.1 percent.“


Freizeitpark in einer Mall in Minnesota
Foto: Jeremy Noble from St. Paul, United States
CC BY 2.0



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