FMW-Redaktion

Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen Uni Michigan ist mit 97,6 etwas besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 97,0;Vormonat war 95,7).

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 114,5 (Prognose war 111,0; Vormonat war 111,2) – der höchste Wert seit dem Jahr 2000!

Die Konjunkturerwartungen liegen bei 86,7 (Prognose war 85,5; Vormonat war 85,7).

Die Inflationserwartungen für das nächste Jahr gehen überraschend stark zurück von 2,7% auf nun nur noch 2,4% – das schwächt den Dollar..

Auffallend nach wie vor die krasse Differenz zwischen Wählern der Demokraten und Wählern der Republikaner: so liegt die Erwartung der Konjunktur bei Wählern der Demokraten bei 55,0 – ein Wert, der sonst nur in tiefen Rezessionen erreicht wird, während der Wert bei den Republikanern bei 122,4 liegt, also totale Euphorie!

Dazu schreibt der Chefvolkswirt für die Umfrage, Richard Costin:

„The overall level of consumer sentiment remained quite favorable in early March due to renewed strength in current economic conditions as well as the extraordinary influence of partisanship on economic prospects. The Current Economic Conditions component reached its highest level since 2000, largely due to improved personal finances. While current economic conditions were not affected by partisanship, this was not true for the component about future economic prospects: among Democrats, the Expectations Index at 55.3 signaled that a deep recession was imminent, while among Republicans the Index at 122.4 indicated a new era of robust economic growth was ahead. Interestingly, those who self-identified as Independents had an Expectations Index of 88.3, which was nearly equal to the midpoint of the partisan difference. Importantly, there was no moderation in these extreme views from last month, with the maintenance of the partisan divide fueled by selective attention to economic news, with Democrats more frequently reporting unfavorable developments and Republicans more frequently hearing of favorable changes. Overall, the sentiment data has been characterized by rising optimism as well as by rising uncertainty due to the partisan divide. Optimism promotes discretionary spending, and uncertainty makes consumers more cautious spenders. This combination will result in uneven spending gains over time and across products. „