Konjunkturdaten

Aktuell: US-Verbrauchervertrauen Uni Michigan stürzt ab

Das Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für April) ist März mit 71,0 schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Vormonat war 89,1).

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 70,0 (Vormonat war 103,7)

Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 72,4(Vormonat war 85,3)

Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, der die Umfrage verantwortet:

 

„Consumer sentiment plunged 18.1 Index-points in early April, the largest monthly decline ever recorded. When combined with last month’s decline, the two-month drop of 30.0 Index-points was 50% larger than the prior record. Of the two Index components, the Current Conditions Index plunged by 31.3 Index-points, nearly twice the prior record decline of 16.6 points set in October 2008. In contrast, the Expectations Index fell by 9.7 points, a substantial decline, but not nearly as steep as the record 16.5 point drop in December of 1980. This suggests that the free-fall in confidence would have been worse were it not for the expectation that the infection and death rates from covid-19 would soon peak and allow the economy to restart. As noted in last week’s special report, anticipating a quick and sustained economic expansion is likely to be a failed expectation, resulting in a renewed and deeper slump in confidence. Indeed, the peak decline in the Expectations Index recorded in December 1980 reflected a relapse following the end of the short January to July 1980 recession, signaling the start of a longer and deeper recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982. Consumers need to be prepared for a longer and deeper recession rather than the now discredited message that pent-up demand will spark a quick, robust, and sustained economic recovery. Continued declines in the seven-day average Sentiment Index can be expected in the weeks ahead (see the featured chart). Sharp additional declines may occur when consumers adjust their views to a slower expected pace of the economic recovery.“



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