Die Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan ist mit 98,0 deutlich besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 94,5; Vormonat war 93,8). Das ist nur knapp unter den Höchstständen des Jahres 2015! Und das wegen Trump, wie die Uni Michigan ausdrücklich betont (siehe unten).
Die Beurteilung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 112,1 (Prognose war 108,5; Vormonat war 107,3)
Die Konjunkturerwartungen liegen bei 88,9 (Prognose war 87,0, Vormonat war 85,2).
Consumer confidence surged in early December to just one-tenth of an Index point below the 2015 peak—which was the highest level since the start of 2004. The surge was largely due to consumers’ initial reactions to Trump’s surprise victory. When asked what news they had heard of recent economic developments, more consumers spontaneously mentioned the expected positive impact of new economic policies than ever before recorded in the long history of the surveys. To be sure, an equal number volunteered negative judgments about prospective economic policies, but the frequency of those negative references was less than half its prior peak levels whereas positive references were about twice its prior peak. There were a few exceptions to the early December surge in optimism, mainly among those with a college degree and among residents of the Northeast, although no group has adopted a pessimistic outlook for the economy. The most important implication of the increase in optimism is that it has raised expectations for the performance of the economy. President-elect Trump must provide early evidence of positive economic growth as well as act to keep positive consumer expectations aligned with performance. Either too slow growth or too high expectations represent barriers to maintaining high levels of consumer confidence. Until specific policies are proposed, there is no reason to alter the 2017 forecast of 2.5% for real consumption.
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