FMW: Fed hawkisher als erwartet, Dezember-Anhebung jetzt sehr wahrscheinlich! Daher der Dollar stärker! Im Juni erwarteten noch 8 Fed-Mitglieder eine Zinsanhebung in 2017, nun sind es 11! Einer erwartet sogar 2 Zinsanhebunge in 2017!
Die Fed hat ihre Inflationserwartung wie erwartet gesenkt, bleibt aber bei ihrer Projektion, dass es sieben Zinsanhebungen geben wird bis 2020 – trotz geringer als erwarteter Inflation! Das legt den Schluss nahe: der Fed geht es nicht nur um Inflation, sondern sie will auch eine Überhitzung der Wirtschaft vermeiden, die sie jetzt positiver sieht als noch im Juni! Faktisch will sie also die „financial conditions“ etwas straffer gestalten, unabhängig von der Inflation..
– keine Zinsänderung
– Fed wird ab Oktober Bilanz reduzieren
– Fed: 3 Zinsanhebungen in 2018, 2 in 2019, 1 in 2020
– Hurrikanes haben vermutlich keinen größeren Einfluss mittelfristig
– Fed hebt Wachstumsprognose für 2017 auf 2,4% an
– 4 Mitglieder erwarten keine Zinsanhebung mehr in 2017, 8 erwarten Schritt; 4 erwarten zwei Zinsanhebungen in 2017
– Fed erwartet nur noch Zinsen bei 2,8% statt zuvor 3,0%
FED Sept statement redline comparison pic.twitter.com/xcEZb9WYI3
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 20, 2017
Das FOMC-Statament im Wortlaut:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Higher prices for gasoline and some other items in the aftermath of the hurricanes will likely boost inflation temporarily; apart from that effect, inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.
Foto: Federal Reserve
Kommentare lesen und schreiben, hier klicken