Konjunkturdaten

Einkaufsmanagerindex stürzt ab – US-Wirtschaft Richtung Rezession

US-Wirtschaft "slowed sharply in June" und "price pressures have peaked". Was kann die Fed tun, wenn die Wirtschaft so stark abkühlt?

US-Wirtschaft Rezession Einkaufsmanager

Soeben wurde der Einkaufsmanagerindex für die USA (Markit PMI; Juni) veröffentlicht, einer der besten Gradmesser für die US-Wirtschaft – und die Daten weisen stark gen Süden und zeigen damit das gestiegene Risiko einer Rezession! Die US-Renditen fallen daraufhin stark! Was kann die Fed tun, wenn die Wirtschaft so stark abkühlt?

Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: 52,4 (Prognose war 56,0; Vormonat war 57,0)

Dienstleistung: 51,6 (Prognose war 53,5; Vormonat war 53,4)

Dazu schreibt Markit, das die Daten erhebt:

„The rise in activity was the second-softest since July 2020, with slower service sector output growth accompanied by the first contraction in manufacturing production in two years.“

„..business confidence slumped to one of the greatest extents seen since comparable data were available in 2012, down to the lowest since September 2020.“

Und Chris Williamson von Markit kommentiert:

“The pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter. The survey data are consistent with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of less than 1% in June, with the goods-producing sector already in decline and the vast service sector slowing sharply.
“Having enjoyed a mini-boom from consumers returning after the relaxation of pandemic restrictions, many services firms are now seeing households increasingly struggle with the rising cost of living, with producers of non-essential goods seeing a similar drop in orders.
“There has consequently been a remarkable drop in demand for goods and services during June compared to
prior months.
“Businesses have become much more concerned about the outlook as a result of the rising cost of living and drop in demand, as well as the increasingly aggressive interest rate path outlined by the Federal Reserve and the concomitant deterioration in broader financial conditions.
Business confidence is now at a level which would typically herald an economic downturn, adding to the risk of recession.
“A corollary of the drop in demand was less pressure on prices, with the survey’s inflation gauges for firms’ costs and their selling prices falling sharply in June to suggest that, although still elevated, price pressures have peaked.”



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