FMW-Redaktion
Vor wenigen Augenblicken wurde das EZB-Protokoll der Sitzung vom 24.-25. Januar veröffentlicht. Hier wichtige Inhalte.
Devisenmarkt: Gleichzeitig Stärke des Euro + Schwäche des Dollar (bis 24. Januar). Zitat:
„In foreign exchange markets, a persistent and broad strengthening of the euro since the December monetary policy meeting prevailed. The current situation was characterised by a combination of a strengthening of the euro and a broad weakness of the US dollar.“
Ökonomische Entwicklung in der Eurozone von Dezember bis Januar hat die EZB nochmal positiv überrascht. Zitat:
The economic expansion in the euro area remained solid and broad-based. Euro area quarterly GDP growth in the third quarter of 2017 had been revised up from 0.6% to 0.7% in Eurostat’s third release. Incoming data since the December monetary policy meeting had generally surprised on the upside. Favourable financing conditions, steady income and profit growth, and a robust labour market remained the key factors supporting aggregate demand.
Preisdruck (Inflation) bleibt gedämpt. Zitat:
Turning to euro area price developments, HICP inflation had decreased to 1.4% in December 2017, from 1.5% in November. This reflected mainly developments in energy prices. Meanwhile, most measures of underlying inflation had lately been lower than in mid-2017 and had yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend. Pressures along the pricing chain remained broadly stable and subdue
Es sei noch zu früh um etwas an der Art und Weise der Äußerungen zu ändern, so die EZB (damit meint man wohl die wirklich wichtigen Aussagen zu Zinsen).
Löhne steigen nicht gegenüber dem Vorquartal (also auch von der Seite kein weiterer Inflationsdruck?).
Inflationsausblick: Die EZB-eigenen Prognosen sind minimal schwächer als die vorige Prognose. Die Prognosen externer Beobachter sieht man minmal steigen. Zitat:
The inflation outlook, as contained in the December 2017 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, was comparable with other major forecasts for 2018 but at the lower end of the range for 2019 and 2020. Inflation expectations in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2018 showed average inflation expectations of 1.5%, 1.7% and 1.8% for 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. Compared with the previous survey round, this represented upward revisions of 0.1 percentage point for 2018 and 2019. Longer-term market-based measures of inflation expectations had increased further, in line with the gradual upward trend observed since the middle of 2017. The five-year forward inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead currently stood at 1.78%.
Wirtschaftswachstum weiter mit gutem Ausblick.
Hin und her, und hin und her… zwar tolles Wirtschaftswachstum, aber die Inflation zieht eben nicht nach. Deswegen erstmal Vorsicht bei einer Politik-Änderung:
At the same time, the economic expansion had not yet translated into higher underlying inflation. Price pressures remained muted and measures of underlying inflation had yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend. However, the acceleration in the cyclical momentum and the ongoing reduction of economic slack strengthened the Governing Council’s confidence that inflation would converge to its aim. Overall, with inflation convergence proceeding only gradually, patience and persistence in monetary policy remained warranted. An ample degree of accommodation was still needed for inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation developments in the medium term.
Trotz der optimistischen Sicht der EZB-Offiziellen sei es dennoch nötig wie bisher alle benutzten Mittel weiter einzusetzen. Zitat:
Against this overall background, members widely agreed that, while there was reason to be increasingly confident about the path of inflation, patience and persistence with regard to monetary policy were still warranted for inflation to converge to the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner. This called for maintaining the current monetary policy stance, which related to the full set of policy instruments.
Immer wieder tauchen sie Worte „geduldig und beständig“ auf (patient and persistent). Klingt nicht nach der Andeutung einer Geldpolitik-Änderung, auch nicht unterschwellig.
EURUSD hat seit 13:29 Uhr 20 Pips verloren.
Kurz-Fazit: Wie es zu erwarten war. Keine großen Knüller-Aussagen. Man bleibt bei seiner Linie. Die Wirtschaft laufe zwar total super auch Hochtouren, aber die Inflation braucht eben noch eine ganze Weile – also erstmal keine Andeutung einer Politik-Änderung.
14 Uhr: ENDE der Berichterstattung in diesem Artikel.
Das EZB-Logo. Gemeinfrei
Kommentare lesen und schreiben, hier klicken
