Konjunkturdaten

Fed-Beige Book: „Bescheidenes Wachstum“

FMW-Redaktion

Die US-Notenbank „Federal Reserve“ hat um 20 Uhr das sogenannte „Beige Book“ veröffentlicht, also eine Beschreibung der wirtschaftlichen Lage der USA, woraus man viele Rückschlüsse für die anstehende Zinsentscheidung am 17. September ziehen kann. Als Reaktion auf das Beige Book stieg der Dow in den letzten 45 Minuten gut 50 Punkte, nur um jetzt wieder 50 Punkte zu fallen. Nur im Öl tut sich was, WTI steigt seit 20 Uhr um mehr als 1 Dollar auf 46,22.

Schon im ersten Absatz fällt wohl die entscheidende Redewendung des Berichts „moderate Growth“, also „bescheidenes Wachstum“ der Wirtschaft. Die wirtschaftliche Einschätzung der regionalen Notenbanken in den USA fällt nicht einheitlich aus. Hier die Zusammenfassung der einzelnen Bereiche im Original:

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate economic activity continued expanding across most regions and sectors during the reporting period from July to mid-August. Six Districts cited moderate growth while New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas reported modest increases in activity. The Cleveland District noted only slight growth since the last report. In most cases, these recent results represented a continuation of the overall pace reported in the July Beige Book. Respondents in most sectors across Districts expected growth to continue at its recent pace, but the Kansas City report cited more mixed expectations.
District reports on manufacturing activity were mostly positive, although among these, the Cleveland, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts painted a somewhat mixed picture across manufacturing sectors. Only the New York and Kansas City Districts cited declines in manufacturing.

Retail contacts in a majority of Districts reported that their sales and revenues continued to expand. By contrast, the Cleveland and Minneapolis Districts cited flat consumer activity since the last report, Atlanta was mixed, and Dallas reported decreased sales year-over-year. Most Districts reported increased auto sales. Among Districts with information on tourism, activity was strong in most reports.

Demand for nonfinancial services, including staffing, generally expanded over the reporting period. Districts mentioning the transportation sector mostly noted activity increases. Districts reporting on the banking sector mostly tallied increases in both business and consumer loan volumes. Credit quality was reported to be improving in most Districts, while credit standards were generally said to be unchanged.

Reports on residential and commercial real estate markets across the Districts were mostly positive. Existing home sales and residential leasing widely improved, with home prices moving up in most areas. Commercial real estate activity also rose in most Districts; commercial construction activity ranged from strong in the Cleveland and Minneapolis Districts to up only slightly in Chicago, while commercial leasing was reported to have increased across the board.

Agricultural conditions were mixed across Districts. Farm contacts indicated that anticipated yields were up for corn and soybeans, but conditions deteriorated in the St. Louis and Kansas City Districts; drought was an ongoing concern in the San Francisco District and was also a factor in parts of the Atlanta and Minneapolis Districts. Districts reporting on the energy sector indicated that conditions were stable to declining; coal production was down in the Richmond and St. Louis Districts, while oil-related activity declined in the Cleveland, Atlanta, and Dallas Districts.

Most Districts reported modest to moderate growth in labor demand, although Boston, Cleveland, and Dallas cited only slight increases in hiring. This tightening of labor markets was said to be pushing wages up slightly in selected industries or occupations, especially in the New York, Cleveland, St. Louis, and San Francisco Districts. Across all Districts, input and selling prices were reported to be stable or up only slightly.



Hier das gesamte Beige Book.



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