Die wichtigsten Aussagen der US-Notenbank Fed in ihrem FOMC-Protokoll – Schlagzeilen aus der letzten Sitzung (27./28.Juli):
FMW-Fazit: die Mehrheit der FOMC-Mitglieder will das Tapering in diesem Jahr noch beginnen – eine Minderheit will damit erst 2022 beginnen. In dem Protokoll ist siebenmal die Rede, dass „substantial progress“ erreicht worden sei (die US-Futures drehten, Algo-getrieben, daher nach unten). Gleichwohl bleibt als Hintertür für die Fed die Corona-Entwicklung: wird Corona wieder ein größeres Problem, dürfte die Fed nicht tapern! Faktisch wäre also eine Verschlechterung der Corona-Lage in den USA damit bullisch für die Märkte (Liquidität!) – absurd, aber wahr..
– Fed: könnten in diesem Jahr das Tapering starten:
„Looking ahead, most participants noted that, provided that the economy were to evolve broadly as they anticipated, they judged that it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year“
– einige Fed-Mitglieder wollen erst nächstes Jahr mit Tapering beginnen:
„Several others indicated, however, that a reduction in the pace of asset purchases was more likely to become appropriate early next year because they saw prevailing conditions in the labor market as not being close to meeting the “substantial further progress” standard.“
– einige Fed-Mitglieder warnen vor zu langer Fortsetzung der ultralaxen Geldpolitik:
„A few participants highlighted scenarios in which a prolonged period of low interest rates and broadly elevated asset valuations could generate imbalances, which could increase financial stability risks.“
– wenn Corona weiter ein Problem bleibt:
„With respect to the effects of the pandemic, several participants indicated that they would adjust their views on the appropriate path of asset purchases if the economic effects of new strains of the virus turned out to be notably worse than currently anticipated“
– Inflation nur „transitory“:
„Participants Commented That Recent Inflation Readings Had Been Boosted By The Effects Of Supply Bottlenecks And Labor Shortages And Were Likely To Be Transitory“
– Uneinigkeit bei Geschwindigkeit des Tapering:
„Participants expressed a range of views on the appropriate pace of tapering asset purchases once economic conditions satisfied the criterion laid out in the Committee’s guidance.“
– Sorgen vor US-Immobilienblase:
„Several participants commented on the benefits that they saw in reducing agency MBS purchases more quickly than Treasury securities purchases, noting that the housing sector was exceptionally strong and did not need either actual or perceived support from the Federal Reserve in the form of agency MBS purchases or that such purchases could be interpreted as a type of credit allocation“
– das Wort „substantial progress“ wird siebenmal erwähnt – das haben die Algos gelesen, die US-Futures plötzlich tiefer..
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