Hier die wichtigsten Aussagen aus dem soeben veröffentlichten FOMC-Protokoll, das sich auf die letzte Sitzung vom 3.-4. Mai bezieht:
– Zinserhöhungen um einen halben Prozentpunkt für die „nächsten paar Sitzungen“ angemessen
– Man hat sich darauf geeinigt die Geldpolitik „zügig“ auf neutral zu stellen
– Inflationsrisiken eher auf der Oberseite
– Anzeichen für eine Zunahme des Arbeitsangebots
– Rückgang des BIP in Q1 enthalte „wenig Signale“ über die zugrunde liegende Stärke der Wirtschaft
– Einige Mitglieder sagten es wäre angebracht den Verkauf von hypothekarisch gesicherten Wertpapieren zu erwägen
CNBC-Einschätzung: „Fed-Protokoll deutet auf weitere Zinserhöhungen hin, schneller als der Markt es erwartet“.
Hier der wichtigste Teil des FOMC-Statements im Wortlaut:
Committee Policy Action
In their discussion of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that, although overall economic activity had edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment had remained strong. Job gains had been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially. Members also agreed that inflation remained elevated, reflecting continued supply and demand imbalances, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
Members concurred that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia was causing tremendous human and economic hardship. Members judged that the implications of the war for the U.S. economy were highly uncertain. Members agreed that the invasion and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were likely to weigh on economic activity. Members also agreed that COVID-related lockdowns in China were likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. In light of continuing inflation risks, members judged that it would be appropriate for the postmeeting statement to note that the Committee is highly attentive to the upside risks to inflation.
In their assessment of the monetary policy stance necessary for achieving the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals, members agreed that, with appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, they expected inflation to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipated that ongoing increases in the target range would be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with the postmeeting statement.
Members agreed that, in assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, they would continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and that they would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate in the event that risks emerged that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. They also concurred that their assessments would take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Following the monetary policy discussion, which included a consideration of plans for reducing the size of the balance sheet, all participants indicated support for the proposed plans for reducing the size of the balance sheet. The Committee voted unanimously to adopt the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet, as shown below.
PLANS FOR REDUCING THE SIZE OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S BALANCE SHEET
(as adopted effective May 4, 2022)
Consistent with the Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in January 2022, all Committee participants agreed to the following plans for significantly reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings.
The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA). Beginning on June 1, principal payments from securities held in the SOMA will be reinvested to the extent that they exceed monthly caps.
For Treasury securities, the cap will initially be set at $30 billion per month and after three months will increase to $60 billion per month. The decline in holdings of Treasury securities under this monthly cap will include Treasury coupon securities and, to the extent that coupon maturities are less than the monthly cap, Treasury bills.
For agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, the cap will initially be set at $17.5 billion per month and after three months will increase to $35 billion per month.
Over time, the Committee intends to maintain securities holdings in amounts needed to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively in its ample reserves regime.
To ensure a smooth transition, the Committee intends to slow and then stop the decline in the size of the balance sheet when reserve balances are somewhat above the level it judges to be consistent with ample reserves.
Once balance sheet runoff has ceased, reserve balances will likely continue to decline for a time, reflecting growth in other Federal Reserve liabilities, until the Committee judges that reserve balances are at an ample level.
Thereafter, the Committee will manage securities holdings as needed to maintain ample reserves over time.
The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details of its approach to reducing the size of the balance sheet in light of economic and financial developments.
After adopting the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, for release at 2:00 p.m.:
„Effective May 5, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:
Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3/4 to 1 percent.
Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 1.0 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 0.8 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in the calendar month of June that exceeds a monthly cap of $30 billion. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in the calendar month of June that exceeds a monthly cap of $17.5 billion.
Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve’s agency MBS transactions.“
The vote also encompassed approval of the statement below for release at 2:00 p.m.:
„Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.“
Voting for this action: Jerome H. Powell, John C. Williams, Michelle W. Bowman, Lael Brainard, James Bullard, Esther L. George, Patrick Harker, Loretta J. Mester, and Christopher J. Waller.
Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
To support the Committee’s decision to raise the target range for the federal funds rate, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 0.90 percent, effective May 5, 2022. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/2 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 1 percent, effective May 5, 2022.5
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday–Wednesday, June 14–15, 2022. The meeting adjourned at 10:15 a.m. on May 4, 2022.
Notation Vote
By notation vote completed on April 5, 2022, the Committee unanimously approved the minutes of the Committee meeting held on March 15–16, 2022.
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