Headlines vom FOMC-Statement: Dovish, Dollar unter Druck, Fed hat es mit Bilanzreduzierung nicht eilig

FMW-Redaktion

– Zinsen unverändert

– kein Abweichler bei Abstimmung – alle für unveränderte Zinsen

– Reduzierung der Bilanzsumme wird „relativ bald“ starten („relatively soon“). Zuvor hatte die Fed noch gesagt: in diesem Jahr!

– Fed hält an 2% Inflationsziel fest, aber: das Wort „recently“ (kürzlich) wird weggelassen und durch „Inflation running below“ ersetzt (Inflation bleibt unter… also nicht mehr vorübergehend. Sehr dovish!)

– Arbeitsmarkt hat sich weiter verbessert

– die Fed behält den Passus bei, die Inflation sei „somewhat below“ 2% (etwas unter 2%) – das ist wichtig, man hatte spekuliert, dass das Wort „somewhat“ wegfallen könnte.

Erstes Fazit FMW: Die Fed bleibt bei ihrer Einschätzung, dass die Inflation nur vorübergehend niedriger sei, indem sie das Wort somewhat beibehält. Aber dass der Beginn der Bilanzreduzierung von „in diesem Jahr“ auf „relativ bald“ abgestuft wird, ist sehr dovish! Daher der Dollar wieder schwach, auch weil die Fed praktisch fallen läßt, dass die Inflation nur vorübergehend niedriger sei. All das ist die Bestätigung der Line, die Janet Yellen schon bei ihrer Anhörung vor dem US-Kongreß gefahren hatte. Sehr schwere Zeiten brechen an für den Dollar! Und Yellens Chancen, Fed-Chefin zu bleiben, sind mit solchen Statements nicht gerade kleiner geworden – das ist Musik in den Ohren Donald Trumps..

Hier eine Übersicht, was sich genau zum letzten Statement der Fed verändert hat (auf Tweet klicken):

Here's what changed in the new Fed statement https://t.co/TLLCP4U1B6

— CNBC (@CNBC) July 26, 2017

Und hier ein sehr guter Ratschlag:

If in doubt after reading the FOMC statement, take a shot of vodka and buy stocks. #protip

— Stalingrad & Poorski (@Stalingrad_Poor) July 26, 2017

—

Das Statement der Fed im Wortlaut:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

For the time being, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated; this program is described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.

Foto: AgnosticPreachersKid – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6282818