Die Märkte zunächst euphorisch, weil die Fed nur 3 Anhebungen in 2018 erwartet und die Inflationsprognosen nicht wirklich anhebt. Aber die Fed erhöht ihre Prognosen für 2019 und 2020, und das verdirbt die Party gewissermaßen. Nun kommt es auf Powell an..
Die wichtigsten Aussagen des FOMC in Schlagzeilen:
– Fed hebt Zinserwartung für 2019 (nun 3 Anhebungen) und 2020 (nun 2 Anhebungen) an, aber bleibt bei drei Zinsanhebungen in 2018!
– Fed geht von weiterer Senkung der Arbeitslosenquote aus
– Fed hebt Inflationsausblick nur marginal an
Die neuen Projektionen der Fed:
Und hier die vorherigen Projektionen zum Vergleich:
FMW: hawkisher als erwartet, auch wenn die Fed nur von drei Anhebungen in 2018 ausgeht – Finanzwerte haussieren..
Und hier der Vergleich zum letzten Statement der Fed:
FOMC statement redline pic.twitter.com/iyYFM2E0PJ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 21, 2018
Und hier satirisch:
Das Fed-Statement im Wortlaut:
„Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending and business fixed investment have moderated from their strong fourth-quarter readings. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.“
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.
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