Die OPEC-Entscheidung ist gefallen. Wie stark erhöht die OPEC nun ihre Fördermenge? Man bedient sich eines geschickten Kniffs. Man sprach vorhin in der Pressekonferenz in Wien nicht ein einziges Mal von der Erhöhung der eigenen Fördermenge. Man erwähnte lediglich, dass die bisherige Fördermengenkürzung mit zuletzt 152% drastisch übererfüllt worden sei.
Diese zu starke Kürzung fahre man ab Juli auf das Normalmaß von 100% zurück. Auch dazu fragten mehre Journalisten, wie viele Barrels das denn wohl seien, die „weniger gekürzt“ werden (Fördermengenausweitung). Der neue OPEC-Vorsitzende aus den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten machte eine mehr als smartes Figur, als er dazu sagte, dass sich die Journalisten das ja selbst ausrechnen könnten. Die OPEC selber konzentriere sich nur darauf die zu große Kürzungsmenge eben von 152% auf 100% zurückzufahren.
Aber er nannte dann doch noch eine Zahl. Die Differenz zwischen 152% und 100% liege bei ungefähr 1 Million Barrels pro Tag. Um diese Menge wird die OPEC also ab Juli ihre Fördermenge steigern. Auch interessant war die Aussage, dass es für die einzelnen Mitglieder keine spezifischen Förderquoten mehr geben werde. Wie man die Gesamtmenge dann steuern will, dazu konnte keine klare Antwort gegeben werden.
Auch wenn die OPEC heute ganz klar sagte, dass man sich aus politischen Dingen heraushalte, so darf man doch annehmen, dass diese zusätzlichen 1 Million Barrels pro Tag relativ gut die Förderverluste aus Iran und Venezuela abdecken werden. Vom Iran hat man heute merklich wenig bis gar nichts in Wien gehört. Also akzeptiert der Iran diesen Deal zähneknirschend. Morgen wird wohl auch Russland am zweiten Tag des OPEC-Meetings verkünden, dass man ebenfalls mehr Öl fördern wird.
Der Ölpreis (WTI) steigt seit gestern um 1,7 Dollar, obwohl er eigentlich fallen müsste. Man könnte daraus schließen, dass die Öl-Zocker am Terminmarkt auf größere Erhöhungs-Mengen gehofft hatten, und jetzt enttäuscht sind. Hier die gesamte Veröffentlichung der heutigen OPEC-Entscheidung im Wortlaut:
The Conference offered its congratulations to the OPEC Secretariat for the success of the 7th OPEC International Seminar. It also offered thanks to OPEC Member Countries, as well as to all the speakers, sponsors and delegates, that had made the Seminar such a seminal event. It noted that the Seminar has become a truly global platform for discussing the challenges, as well as opportunities, facing the oil and energy industries.
The Conference considered Congo’s request to join the Organization and decided to approve its admission with immediate effect.
The Conference considered the Secretary General’s report, the report and recommendations made by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), supported by the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), which was set-up to monitor conformity to the voluntary production adjustments made by 24 OPEC and non-OPEC producing nations through the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’, as well as the report of the Economic Commission Board and various administrative matters.
The Conference analyzed oil market developments since it last met in Vienna at the end of November and reviewed the oil market outlook for the remainder of 2018. The Conference noted that the oil market situation has further improved over the past six months, with the global economy remaining strong, oil demand relatively robust, albeit with some uncertainties, and with the market rebalancing evidently continuing. Moreover, the return of more stability and more optimism to the industry has been welcomed by all stakeholders.
Reaffirming OPEC’s continued commitment to stable markets, the mutual interest of producing nations, the efficient, economic, and secure supply to consumers, and a fair return on invested capital, and noting the overall improvement in market conditions and sentiment and the return of confidence and investment to the oil industry.
Recalling the 171st OPEC Conference resolution reached on 30 November 2016 for a production adjustment of 1.2 mb/d.
Noting that OPEC Member Countries have exceeded the required level of conformity that had reached 152% in May 2018.
Accordingly, the Conference hereby decided that countries will strive to adhere to the overall conformity level of OPEC-12, down to 100%, as of 1 July 2018 for the remaining duration of the above mentioned resolution and for the JMMC to monitor and report back to the President of the Conference.
The Conference thanked all OPEC Member Countries, as well as participating non-OPEC countries in the historic ‘Declaration of Cooperation’, for their dedication to the voluntary production adjustments, which can be viewed in the continued high-level of conformity levels so far this year.
The Conference extended its deep appreciation to the JMMC, the JTC and the OPEC Secretariat for their valuable engagement in providing the transparency required for implementing the voluntary production decisions in a timely and equitable manner.
It also noted the important work that has been undertaken by these committees to review alternative and/or adjusted metrics to measure the impact of the Declaration of Cooperation. The Conference supported the findings that a single metric is not sufficient in terms of measuring market stability and therefore a more comprehensive and forward looking set of metrics is recommended to enhance the analytical depth and understanding of the complex global oil demand and supply dynamics beyond the short-term.
The Conference also acknowledged the crucial role played by participating non-OPEC nations in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’, and stressed the importance of the 4th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting that would take place tomorrow (23 June 2018) at the OPEC Secretariat.
The Conference welcomed the positive dialogue and technical expert interactions that have evolved among all Parties of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’. This includes the most recent 3rd Technical Meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC Producing Countries on 19 June, which focused on oil market fundamentals and medium-term prospects.
The Conference decided that its next Ordinary Meeting will convene in Vienna, Austria, on 3 December 2018.
Die OPEC-Zentrale in Wien. Foto: Priwo – photo taken by de:Benutzer:Priwo / Gemeinfrei
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