Rede von EZB-Vize Constancio: Weiter pumpen, pumpen, pumpen…

FMW-Redaktion

Heute hat der EZB-Vize Vitor Constancio bei der „Euro Finance Week“ in Frankfurt zur Geldpolitik und zu den Problemen der Eurozone gesprochen. Dabei untermauerte er ein Mal mehr die Politik der EZB, das man weiter pumpen wird, bis die Inflation bei 2% ist. Geld drucken, Anleihen  aufkaufen – pumpen, pumpen, pumpen, und die Zinsen noch lange bei 0 halten. Zitat:

„In order to bring inflation rates closer to the stated objective of price stability over the medium-term, and in order to support the aggregate recovery, our monetary policy continues pursuing its accommodative stance. Our main policy rates will stay low for a prolonged period of time, in line with our forward guidance. The asset purchase programme will keep our balance sheet expanding until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. When the global financial crisis intensified in September 2008, the interest rate on the ECB’s main refinancing operations for banks stood at 4.25 percent. By May 2009, the ECB had reduced this rate to 1 percent, while simultaneously cutting the rate on the deposit facility to 25 basis points. The significant decline of inflation since the later part of 2013 led us to further reduce interest rates during last year and the interest rate on the main refinancing operations currently stands at 5 basis points, whereas the interest rate on the deposit facility is -20 basis points.

Why did the Governing Council reduce the policy rates to such low levels? Policy rates are defined in nominal terms, they have a component related to inflation and another associated to real economic growth. Monetary policy searches for a neutral rate that steers the economy to stable inflation around its target and consequentially, the market for goods and services in equilibrium at full employment. The interest rate in real terms, i.e., adjusted by inflation, is precisely the rate at which the economy’s growth rate is equal to the potential growth rate so that no demand pressure makes the inflation rate inconsistent with price stability in the medium-term. Recent estimates for the U.S. indicate that such real rate can now be in negative territory and the same should apply to other advanced economies. [2]

The point that monetary policy cannot affect the equilibrium real rate is important. In addition to the propensity to save, the equilibrium rate depends on the growth rate of potential output. If potential output grows slowly, the equilibrium rate will be low, and therefore the real rate necessary to achieve price stability will also be low, independently of what the central bank does. Unfortunately, the growth rate of potential output in the advanced economies appears to have decreased in the recent years. Labour productivity, defined as output per employee, grew at the same average annual rate of 1.7 percent in the euro area and in the U.S. for two decades, from 1981 to 2000. From 2001 to 2008, the average annual growth rate of labour productivity in the U.S. was lower, at 1.5 percent, and since 2008 it has been only 1.1 percent. The slowdown in growth of labour productivity in the euro area has been far more pronounced: the average annual growth rate of labour productivity dropped to 0.5 percent from 2001 to 2008 and stands at 0.2 percent since then.“
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Quelle: EZB