Rede von Mario Draghi: Risiken sind abwärts gerichtet, größter Einbruch seit Finanzkrise

Soeben ist der Redetext von Mario Draghi (von seiner Rede in Frankfurt) veröffentlicht worden – hier die zentralen Aussagen:

– Risiken sind abwärtsgerichtet:

„The last year has seen a loss of growth momentum in the euro area, which has extended into 2019. This has been predominantly driven by pervasive uncertainty in the global economy that has spilled over into the external sector. So far, the domestic economy has remained relatively resilient and the drivers of the current expansion remain in place. However, the risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.“

– neueste Entscheidungen der EZB reflektieren dieses Abwärtsmomentum:

„The monetary policy measures we took at the last Governing Council meeting reflect this assessment. In the face of a weaker growth outlook, they help maintain the accommodative policy stance that we managed to preserve last year as we rotated our instruments from net asset purchases to forward guidance.“

– schwacher Welthandel und Abkühlung in China führten zum schwächsten Wachstum seit der Finanzkrise::

„In the meantime, the first risk has by and large been realised. The weakness in world trade has continued, which has significantly affected the manufacturing sector. Global goods import growth in January reached its lowest level since the Great Recession, on the back of rising uncertainty about trade disputes and a slowdown in emerging market economies, especially China.“

– Europa besonders betroffen vom schwachen Welthandel:

„In particular, both extra and intra-euro area trade slowed steeply last year, whereas in 2016 intra-euro area trade was robust to the external slowdown. Such a recoupling of intra- and extra-euro area trade growth in a downward direction has not occurred since the start of the global financial crisis. Intra-euro area exports of intermediate and capital goods were hit particularly hard, with capital goods exports registering their strongest contraction since the sovereign debt crisis.“

– derzeit wenig Anzeichen für Verbesserung:

„As a result, growth in extra-euro area goods exports was negative at the end of last year for the first time since January 2016, and industrial production fell by 4.2% year on year in December – its largest decline since 2013 – before recovering somewhat in January. Indicators such as new export orders, which have historically been closely associated with industrial production, remain in negative territory.“

– es müsse aber trotz der Schwäche nicht zu einem scharfen Einbruch kommen:

„So we are now seeing a more persistent deterioration of external demand. But a “soft patch“ does not necessarily foreshadow a serious slump.“

– Draghische Dialektik: wenn sich die Wirtschaft erholt, besteht die Chance auf eine Erholung:

„A further rise in global uncertainty could therefore lead to a deceleration in trade and investment. But for now expectations for investment remain relatively robust. Though professional forecasters have slightly downgraded their projections for investment growth this year – from around 3% to around 2.5% – the fundamentals are in place for investment to rebound, if global growth stabilises.“

– Arbeitsmarkt bleibt noch robust:

„The most important issue for the consumption outlook is the labour market, since higher employment has been the major driver of consumption during the current expansion. So far the labour market has been resilient to the growth slowdown.“

Und Draghis Fazit:

„All in all, the current data suggest that external demand has not yet spilled over significantly into domestic demand, but the risks have risen in the last months and uncertainty remains high. This is why our medium-term outlook remains that growth will gradually return to potential, but the risks remain tilted to the downside.“

In der Summe doch sehr pessimistisch was die aktuelle Lage betrifft, aber es bestehe Hoffnung (aber was soll er auch anderes sagen..).