Konjunkturdaten

US-Arbeitsmarktdaten: Im Juli +255.00 neue Stellen (+180.000 erwartet) – Update 14:40 Uhr

Soeben wurden die US-Arbeitsmarktdaten für Juli verkündet. Hier die wichtigsten Fakten...

FMW-Redaktion

Soeben wurden die US-Arbeitsmarktdaten für Juli verkündet. Hier die wichtigsten Fakten:

Die Anzahl neu geschaffener Stellen: +255.000 (Juni +287.000 / jetzt erwartet +180.000)

Arbeitslosenquote: 4,9% (Juni 4,9% / jetzt erwartet 4,8%)

Participation Rate: 62,8% (Juni 62,7%)

Stundenlöhne: +0,3% (Juni +0,1% / jetzt erwartet +0,2%)

Schnelleinschätzung: Neu geschaffene Stellen über den Erwartungen, positiv für den US-Dollar, da Zinsanhebung wahrscheinlicher als vorher!

USA

Die Originalmeldung der US-Arbeitsmarktbehörde:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 255,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was
unchanged at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in professional and business services, health care, and financial activities.
Employment in mining continued to trend down.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate held at 4.9 percent in July, and the number of unemployed persons
was essentially unchanged at 7.8 million. Both measures have shown little movement, on
net, since August of last year. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates in July were little changed for adult
men (4.6 percent), adult women (4.3 percent), teenagers (15.6 percent), Whites, (4.3
percent), Blacks (8.4 percent), Asians (3.8 percent), and Hispanics (5.4 percent). (See
tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In July, the number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks decreased by 258,000. At
2.0 million, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
was about unchanged over the month and accounted for 26.6 percent of the unemployed.
(See table A-12.)

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the employment-population
ratio, at 59.7 percent, changed little in July. (See table A-1.) The number of persons
employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time
workers) was little changed at 5.9 million in July. These individuals, who would have
preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut
back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

In July, 2.0 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about unchanged
from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not
in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime
in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 591,000 discouraged workers in July, little
different from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged
workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are
available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor
force in July had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family
responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 255,000 in July. Job gains occurred in
professional and business services, health care, and financial activities. Mining
employment continued to trend down. (See table B-1.)

Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs in July and has added 550,000 jobs
over the past 12 months. Within the industry, employment rose by 37,000 in professional
and technical services in July, led by computer systems design and related services
(+8,000) and architectural and engineering services (+7,000). Employment in management
and technical consulting services continued to trend up (+6,000).

In July, health care employment increased by 43,000, with gains in ambulatory health care
services (+19,000), hospitals (+17,000), and nursing and residential care facilities
(+7,000). Over the past 12 months, health care has added 477,000 jobs.

Employment in financial activities rose by 18,000 in July and has risen by 162,000 over
the year.

Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in July (+45,000). Employment
in food services and drinking places changed little in July (+21,000); this industry has
added an average of 18,000 jobs per month thus far this year, compared with an average
monthly gain of 30,000 in 2015.

Government employment edged up in July (+38,000).

Employment in mining continued to trend down over the month (-6,000). Since reaching a
peak in September 2014, employment in this industry has fallen by 220,000, or 26 percent.

Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale
trade, retail trade, and information, showed little or no change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour
to 34.5 hours in July. In manufacturing, the workweek was unchanged at 40.7 hours, while
overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls also increased by 0.1 hour to 33.7
hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased
by 8 cents to $25.69. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.6 percent.
Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees
increased by 7 cents to $21.59 in July. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +11,000 to
+24,000, and the change for June was revised from +287,000 to +292,000. With these
revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 18,000 more than previously
reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 190,000 per month.



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5 Kommentare

  1. Hmmm, ich frage mich die ganze Zeit was das soll. Da werden die Erwartungen mal eben so niedrig angesetzt (100.000 Stellen weniger als im Vormonat!!!), dass sie eigentlich nur übertroffen werden können.
    Klingt für mich nach Kasperletheater ;-)

  2. Lügen haben kurze Beine… Mal sehn wie lange die „Märkte“ diesen Zahlen noch glauben.

  3. Avatar
    Helmut Josef Weber

    Es ist ja auch wichtig, dass der Goldpreis mal wieder einen Knick bekommt, denn sonst würde auch der letzte Anleger merken, dass Gold, seit 1970, im Schnitt um ***steuerfreie***8,4% im Jahr gestiegen ist.
    So kann man dem kleinen Privatanleger besser Papierwerte aufschwatzen und mich lässt der Finanzminister mit Steuern in Ruhe.

    Viele Grüße
    H. J. Weber

  4. Eine Fachliche Aussage zum Birth-Death Model wäre ein feiner Zug von FMW

  5. Wenn man Amerikaner kennt, sagen diese das man von dem Wirtschaftsaufschwung überhaupt nichts mitbekommt und das man das Gefühl hat das es Abwärts geht.

    Dieses Zitat hier fand ich sehr hilfreich bei der Meinungsfindung –>

    Die Ausführungen von Roberts belegen, dass von den 255.000 von der US-Arbeitsbehörde (BLS) vermeldeten neuen US-Stellen geschlagene 200.000 aus dem unseriösen Birth/Death-Model stammen, das allein auf hedonistischen und unrealistischen Schätzungen basiert.

    Faktisch wurden daher offenbar nur 55.000 neue US-Jobs geschaffen. Das passt auch viel besser zu den zuvor gemeldeten Rückgängen von -1,7 % bei den Industrieaufträgen sowie zu sonstigen schwächlichen US-Makrozahlen.

    These jobs are a product of theassumption in the Birth-Death Model that new business ventures create more unreported new jobs than the unreported job losses from business failures… .In other words, the 255,000 jobs are the product of a virtual reality created by a faulty model and manipulations of seasonal adjustments.

    Zusätzlich gehe ich davon aus das die neu geschaffenen Stellen größtenteils aus Minijobs bestehen.

    Leider kann man mit dem Wissen an der Börse nichts anfangen weil nur stumpfsinnig auf die Zahl geachtet wird.

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