Das Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed) hat soeben verkündet, dass man den Leitzins um 50 Basispunkte (0,5%) anhebt (wie von den Märkten erwartet).
Hier die Headlines zum FOMC Statement:
– Bilanzsumme wird ab 01.Juni um 95 Milliarden Dollar reduziert (60 Milliarden Treasurys, 35 Mortgage Backed Securities
– keine Erwähnung einer schnelleren Bilanzreduzierung („expiditious“ pace of tightening)
– Fed „hoch wachsam“ gegenüber Inflations-Risiken („The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks“)
FMW: also alles wie erwartet, aber die Fed signalisiert mit dem Begriff „highly attentive to inflation risks“, dass bei weiter steigender oder hoher Inflation ein noch größerer Zinsschritt erfolgen kann. Die Märkte volatil – man wartet auf Powell (wir berichten ab 20.30Uhr)
Interessant: Fed funds futures sehen Wahrscheinlichkeit für 0,5%-Anhebung bei nächsten Meeting (15.Juni) jetzt 77% (vor dem Statement bei 56%). Dagegen wird die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines 0,75%-Schritts im Juni nun geringer gesehen..
Das Statement der Fed im Wortlaut:
Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
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