Konjunkturdaten

US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan) erholt sich, bleibt aber historisch niedrig

Das Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für Dezember) ist mit 67,8 besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose 67,1; Vormonat war 67,4). Erstaunlicherweise werden trotz der hohen Inflation die unteren Einkommensgruppen optmistischer, die oberen pessimistischer (siehe Kommmentar unten).

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 74,6 (Vormonat war 73,6)

Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 67,8 (Vormonat war 63,5)

Inflationserwartung:

1-year inflation 4.9% vs 4.9% prior
5-10 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prior

Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, der die Umfrage verantwortet:

„Sentiment posted a small overall gain in early December (+4.5%), although it was still nearly identical to the average reading in the prior four months (70.6). The more interesting result was the large disparity between monthly gain among households with incomes in the lowest third (+23.6%) of the income distribution compared with the modest losses among households in the middle (-3.8%) and top third (-4.3%). While small differences in the direction of change are rather common, it is quite unusual to record such a large change in the bottom third: a larger one-month percentage was recorded only once before, a gain of 29.2% in June 1980. While it is usually assumed that such extreme changes represent an erroneous result due to small samples, in 1980 it was the households in the bottom income third that initially signaled the end of the first part of the double recession in 1980-82, with upper income households following in subsequent months. The core of the renewed optimism among the bottom third was the expectation of income increases of 2.9% during the year ahead; the last time a higher gain for this group was expected was in 1981. This suggests an emerging wage-price spiral that could propel inflation higher in the years ahead. When directly asked whether inflation or unemployment was the more serious problem facing the nation, 76% selected inflation while just 21% selected unemployment (the balance reported the problems were equal or they couldn’t choose). The dominance of inflation over unemployment was true for all income, age, education, region, and political subgroups. While a shift in policy emphasis is necessary, it will be difficult to gauge the right balance between fiscal and monetary policies that both trims inflation and maintains the unemployment rate near its current lows.“



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