Das Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für Juli) ist mit 51,1 etwas besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose 49,9; Vormonat war 50,0 – das war ein Allzeittief!).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 57,1 (Vormonat war 53,8)
Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 47,3 (Vormonat war 47,4)
Die Inflationserwartung: 1 Jahr: 5,2%, erwartet 5,3% (Vormonat 5,3%); 5-10Jahre: 2,8%, erwartet 3,0% (Vormonat 3,1%).
US-Indizes höher wegen der niedrigeren Inflations-Erwartung!
Dazu Joanne Hsu, die die Umfrage verantwortet:
„Consumer sentiment was relatively unchanged, remaining near all-time lows. Current assessments of personal finances continued to deteriorate, reaching its lowest point since 2011. Buying conditions for durables adjusted upwards, owing both to consumers who cited easing supply constraints and those who believed that one should buy now to avoid future price increases, which would exacerbate inflation going forward. Even with the adjustment, buying conditions remained 26% lower than a year ago.
Consumers remained in agreement over the deleterious effect of prices on their personal finances. The share of consumers blaming inflation for eroding their living standards continued its rise to 49%, matching the all-time high reached during the Great Recession. These negative views endured in the face of the recent moderation in gas prices at the pump.
Inflation expectations have held steady or improved somewhat. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.2%, little changed from the past five months. Median long run expectations fell to 2.8%, just below the 2.9-3.1% range seen in the preceding 11 months. Inflation uncertainty continued to grow, with 26% of consumers expecting prices to stay the same or fall over the next 5 to 10 years, up from 11% a year ago.“
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