US-Verbrauchervertrauen extrem schwach, Verkäufe neuer US-Häuser extrem stark

Die Verkäufe neuer US-Häuser (New Homes Sales; Juli) sind mit +13,9% auf eine Jahresrate von 901.000 besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war +1,3% auf eine Jahresrate von 785.000; Vormonat war +13,8% auf eine Jahresrate von 776.000, nun jedoch auf +15,1% auf eine Jahresrate von 791.000 nach oben revidiert).

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Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board; August) ist mit 84,8 schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 93,0; Vormonat war 92,6). Das ist der niedrigste Wert seit sechs Jahren!

Die Erwartung liegt bei 85,2 (Vormonat war 88,9)

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 84,2 (Vormonat war 95,9)

Dazu schreibt das Conference Board, das die Daten erhebt:

“Consumer Confidence declined in August for the second consecutive month,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index decreased sharply, with consumers stating that both business and employment conditions had deteriorated over the past month. Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook, and their financial prospects, also declined and continues on a downward path. Consumer spending has rebounded in recent months but increasing concerns amongst consumers about the economic outlook and their financial well-being will likely cause spending to cool in the months ahead.”

Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions receded in August. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” declined from 17.5 percent to 16.4 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased from 38.9 percent to 43.6 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was also less favorable. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” declined from 22.3 percent to 21.5 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased from 20.1 percent to 25.2 percent.

Consumers were also more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months declined from 31.6 percent to 29.9 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased slightly from 20.2 percent to 20.5 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less positive. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined from 29.6 percent to 29.1 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 21.3 percent to 21.9 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an increase declined from 14.8 percent to 12.7 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease rose from 15.8 percent to 16.6 percent.“