Soeben wurde vom Conference Board auch das US-Verbrauchervertrauen für den Monat Mai veröffentlicht:
Der Indexwert liegt mit 98,0 Punkten deutlich über der Erwartung – (Erwartung lag bei 87,1; Vormonat war 86,0, das war der schlechteste Wert seit Januar 2021). Vor allem die Zoll-Senkung gegen China von 145% auf mindestens 30% (faktisch mit allen vorherigen Zöllen knapp unter 50%) sorgte für mehr Optimismus der Verbaucher.
Dazu die Aussagen des Conference Board:
„The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 12.3 points in May to 98.0 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers‘ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose 4.8 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers‘ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—surged 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was May 19, 2025. About half of the responses were collected after the May 12 announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.
„Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,“ said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. „The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows. Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects. Consumers‘ assessments of the present situation also improved. However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.“
May’s rebound in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the strongest improvements among Republicans. However, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence in all age and income groups was still down due to previous monthly declines.
Guichard added: „With the stock market continuing to recover in May, consumers‘ outlook on stock prices improved, with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months (up from 37.6% in April) and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline (down from 47.2% in April). This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal.“
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