Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (März), das stark beachtet wird auch wegen der Erwartungen der Konsumenten zur Inflation, ist mit 57,9 Punkten schlechter ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose 63,1 / Vormonat war 64,7).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 63,5 (Prognose war 65 / Vormonat war 65,7).
Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 54,2 (Prognose 64,3 / Vormonat war 64).
Erwartungen zur Inflation:
1 Jahr: Von 4,3 % jetzt auf 4,9 % – der höchste Wert seit November 2022.
5 Jahre: Von 3,5 % jetzt auf 3,9 % – der höchste Monatsanstieg seit 1993.
Dazu schreibt aktuell Joanne Hsu, die die Umfrage verantwortet: Consumer sentiment slid another 11% this month, with declines seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024. While current economic conditions were little changed, expectations for the future deteriorated across multiple facets of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets. Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences. Consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February. Despite their greater confidence following the election, Republicans posted a sizable 10% decline in their expectations index in March. For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index declined an even steeper 12 and 24%, respectively.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% last month to 4.9% this month, the highest reading since November 2022 and marking three consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation expectations surged from 3.5% in February to 3.9% in March. This is the largest month-over-month increase seen since 1993, stemming from a sizable rise among Independents, and followed an already-large increase in February.
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