Soeben wurde der ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex für das Gewerbe für den Monat Augustveröffentlicht. Der Hauptindex liegt bei 55,6 und damit über der Erwartung (Prognose war 54,0; Vormonat war 53,3) – alle Werte über 50 bedeuten Wachstum).
– Preise 71,1 (Prognose war 70,0; Vormonat war 79,0 – alle Werte über 50 signalisieren steigende Preise).
– Auftragseingang 56,7 (Vormonat war 56,0)
– Beschäftigung 52,8 (Vormonat war 49,7)
Dazu schreibt ISM:
„Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 55.6 percent in July, 2.3 percentage points above the June figure and the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). The overall economy continued in expansion for the 21st month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index expanded for the seventh consecutive month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 56.7 percent, up 0.7 percentage point compared to June’s figure of 56 percent. The July reading of the Production Index (58.5 percent) is 6.3 percentage points higher than the 52.2 percent recorded in June and the highest figure since November 2021 (60.5 percent). The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 71.1 percent, a 1.9-percentage point decrease from June’s reading of 73 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 55 percent, up 4.5 percentage points compared to the 50.5 percent recorded in June. The Employment Index reading of 52.8 percent is up 3.1 percentage points from June’s figure of 49.7 percent, putting the index in expansion territory for the first time in 33 months,” says Spence.“
Somit bleibt jetzt abzuwarten, ob Fed-Chef Kevin Warsh die positive Konjunktur im produzierenden Gewerbe der USA, und die damit eben auch entstehende Inflation zum Anlaß nimmt, die Leitzinsen zu erhöhen.
Die tatsächliche US- Inflation liegt sicherlich beim Doppelten der Veröffentlichten….
Die US- Zinsen werden so künstlich niedrig gehalten…
Leitzinsen wie in 2000 wären deshalb angemessen…