Soeben wurde der ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex für das Gewerbe für den Monat Oktober veröffentlicht:
Der Hauptindex liegt bei 46,5 (Prognose war 47,6; Vormonat war 47,2).
– Preise 54,8 (Vormonat war 48,3 – alle Werte über 50 signalisieren steigende Preise).
– Auftragseingang 47,1 (Vormonat war 46,1)
– Beschäftigung 44,4 (Vormonat war 45,0)
Marktreaktion: gering – wenig Veränderung bei US-Futures, die Renditen steigen nach den schwachen Arbeitsmarktdaten seit einigen Minuten wieder, der Dollar ebenfalls..
ISM kommentiert:
„Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the seventh consecutive month and the 23rd time in the last 24 months“.
“U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in October, and at a faster rate compared to last month. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative. Demand slowing was reflected by the (1) New Orders Index remaining in contraction territory, (2) New Export Orders Index contracting moderately, (3) Backlog of Orders Index dropping further into strong contraction territory, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index indicating customers’ inventories were ‘too low.’ (For more, see the Customers’ Inventories Index summary section.) Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) continued in contraction: Employment shrunk, but at a slower rate, while production moved further into contraction. Panelists cited continuing efforts by their companies to right-size workforces to levels consistent with forecasted demand. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — generally continued to accommodate future demand growth, with inventories returning to low levels and suppliers continuing to show marginal difficulty in meeting customer needs.
“Demand remains subdued, as companies continue to show an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to concerns (for example, inflation resurgence) about federal monetary policy direction in light of the fiscal policies proposed by both major parties. Production execution eased in October, consistent with demand sluggishness. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and some shortages reappearing. Sixty-three percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in October, down from 77 percent in September. The share of manufacturing sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent (a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness) was 46 percent in October, a 5-percentage point increase compared to the 41 percent reported in September. Only two of the six largest manufacturing industries — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded in October, compared to one in September,” says Fiore.
The five manufacturing industries reporting growth in October are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The 11 industries reporting contraction in October — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Paper Products.
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