Input-Kosten steigen weiter, Wirtschaft schwach Wirtschaft USA: Einkaufsmanagerindex zeigt steigende Kosten

Soeben wurde die Einkaufsmanagerindex für die USA (S&P Global PMI; Januar) veröffentlicht – einer der besten Gradmesser für die Wirtschaft der USA:

Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: 46,8 (Prognose war 46,0; Vormonat war 46,0)

Dienstleistung: 46,6 (Prognose war 45,0; Vormonat war 44,7)

Gesamtindex: 46,6 (Vormonat war 45,0)

Dazu Chris Williamson, der Chefvolkswirt von S&P Global, das die Daten erhebt:

“The US economy has started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note, with business activity contracting sharply again
in January. Although moderating compared to December, the rate of decline is among the steepest seen since theglobal financial crisis, reflecting falling activity across both manufacturing and services.

“Jobs growth has also cooled, with January seeing a far weaker increase in payroll numbers than evident throughout much of last year, reflecting a hesitancy to expand capacity in the face of uncertain trading conditions in the months ahead. Although the survey saw a moderation in the rate of order book losses and anencouraging upturn in business sentiment, the overall level of confidence remains subdued by historical standards. Companies cite concerns over the ongoing impact of high prices and rising interest rates, as well as lingering worries over supply and labor shortages.

“The worry is that, not only has the survey indicated a downturn in economic activity at the start of the year, but the rate of input cost inflation has accelerated into the new year, linked in part to upward wage pressures, which could encourage a further aggressive tightening of Fed policy despite rising recession risks.”