Neue Daten für die Wirtschaft der USA: soeben wurde der ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex für Dienstleistungen für den Monat Mai veröffentlicht:
Hauptindex 50,3 und damit nur noch ganz knapp Wachstum (50 ist die Grenze zwischen Wachstum und Kontraktion; für heute erwartet 51,8; Vormonat war 51,9).
Preise 56,2 (Vormonat war 57,8) – damit steigen die Preise zum Vormonat weiter (alle Werte über 50 signalisieren steigende Preise)
Auftragseingang 52,9 (Vormonat 56,1)
Beschäftigung 49,2 (Vormonat 50,8)
Geschäftsaktivität 51,5 (Vormonat 54,5)
Marktreaktion: Dollar schwächer, Renditen niedriger, US-Aktienmärkte volatil. Zwar sind normalerweise schlechte Daten gute Daten für die Märkte, aber wenn nun auch der Service-Sektor abrutscht (Gewerbe ist bereits seit Monaten in der Rezession), dann droht eben auch eine Rezession, die nicht gut für die Aktienmärkte ist. Die Preise steigen weiter, wenn auch etwas langsamer..
Dazu schreibt ISM:
“In May, the Services PMI® registered 50.3 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than April’s reading of 51.9 percent. The composite index indicated growth in May for the fifth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 51.5 percent, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 52 percent in April. The New Orders Index expanded in May for the fifth consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 52.9 percent is 3.2 percentage points lower than the April reading of 56.1 percent.
“The Supplier Deliveries registered 47.7 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 48.6 percent recorded in April. In the last six months, the average reading of 48.0 percent (with a low of 45.8 percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)
“The Prices Index was down 3.4 percentage points in May, to 56.2 percent. The Inventories Index expanded in May after a month of contraction and two previous months of growth, preceded by eight straight months of contraction; the reading of 58.3 percent is up 11.1 percentage points from April’s figure of 47.2 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (61 percent, up 12.1 percentage points from April’s reading of 48.9 percent) expanded after a month of contraction preceded by four months of growth, with a four-month period of contraction before that. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 40.9 percent, an 8.8-percentage point decrease compared to the April figure of 49.7 percent and the index’s lowest reading since May 2009 (40 percent).
“Eleven industries reported growth in May. The Services PMI®, by being above 50 percent for a fifth month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector. The composite index has indicated expansion for all but three of the previous 160 months.”
Nieves continues, “There has been a pullback in the rate of growth for the services sector. This is due mostly to the decrease in employment and continued improvements in delivery times (resulting in a decrease in the Supplier Deliveries Index) and capacity, which are in many ways a product of sluggish demand. The majority of respondents indicate that business conditions are currently stable; however, there are concerns relative to the slowing economy.”
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