Geldpolitik wahrscheinlich noch längere Zeit restriktiv Bank of England belässt Leitzins bei 5,25 %

Zentrale der Bank of England in London
Zentrale der Bank of England in London. Foto: Diliff Lizenz: CC BY-SA 3.0

Die Bank of England hat soeben entschieden den Leitzins bei 5,25 % zu belassen. Die Markterwartungen wurden damit erfüllt. Die Entscheidung im Notenbankrat fiel mit 6 gegen 3 Stimmen. 3 Notenbanker wollten den Zins weiter anheben. Daraufhin steigt das Pfund in einer ersten Reaktion in 3 Minuten gegenüber dem US-Dollar von 1,2662 auf 1,2712.

Wichtiger Satz der Notenbanker, übersetzt: Wie aus den Projektionen des geldpolitischen Berichts vom November hervorgeht, ist der Ausschuss nach wie vor der Ansicht, dass die Geldpolitik wahrscheinlich für einen längeren Zeitraum restriktiv sein muss.

Hier das Statement der Bank of England im Wortlaut: In the MPC’s November Monetary Policy Report projections, conditioned on a market-implied path for Bank Rate that remained around 5¼% until 2024 Q3 and then declined gradually to 4¼% by the end of 2026, GDP was expected to be broadly flat in the first half of the forecast period, in part reflecting relatively weak potential supply, and an increasing degree of economic slack was expected to emerge from the start of next year. In the most likely, or modal, projection, CPI inflation returned to the 2% target by the end of 2025 and fell below the target thereafter. The Committee continued to judge that the risks to its modal inflation projection were skewed to the upside, such that the mean projection for CPI inflation was 2.2% and 1.9% at the two and three-year horizons.

Since the MPC’s previous meeting, advanced-economy government bond yields have fallen materially, including at shorter horizons, and risky asset prices have risen. Global GDP growth has been a little stronger than projected in the November Report. Consumer price inflation in the euro area and the United States has declined more quickly than expected. There remain upside risks to inflation given events in the Middle East, although oil and wholesale gas futures prices have fallen.

UK GDP was flat in 2023 Q3, in line with the November Report projection, and fell by 0.3% in October. Based on the latest official and survey data, Bank staff expect GDP growth to be broadly flat in Q4 and over coming quarters. The Committee continues to consider a wide range of data on developments in labour market activity. Employment growth is likely to have softened, and there has been further evidence of some loosening in the labour market.

Relative to the assumptions in the November Report, the fiscal measures in the Autumn Statement are provisionally estimated to increase the level of GDP by around ¼% over coming years. As these measures will probably also boost potential supply to some extent, the implications for the Committee’s output gap projection, and hence inflationary pressures in the economy, are likely to be smaller.

Annual private sector regular Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) growth declined to 7.3% in the three months to October, 0.5 percentage points below the November Report projection. That has brought AWE somewhat more into line with other indicators of pay growth, which have fallen below 7%. There remain upside risks to the outlook for wage growth, including from the possible effects of the recently announced increase in the National Living Wage.

Twelve-month CPI inflation fell sharply from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October. Services price inflation declined to 6.6%, although much of the downside news relative to the November Report reflected movements in components that may not provide a good signal of underlying trends in services prices and of persistence in headline inflation.

CPI inflation is expected to remain near to its current rate around the turn of the year. In particular, services price inflation is projected to increase temporarily in January, related to base effects from unusually weak price movements at the start of this year, before starting to fall back gradually thereafter. The near-term path for CPI inflation is somewhat lower than projected in the November Report, in part reflecting recent declines in energy prices.

The MPC’s remit is clear that the inflation target applies at all times, reflecting the primacy of price stability in the UK monetary policy framework. The framework recognises that there will be occasions when inflation will depart from the target as a result of shocks and disturbances. Monetary policy will ensure that CPI inflation returns to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term.

Since the MPC’s previous decision, CPI inflation has fallen back broadly as expected, while there has been some downside news in private sector regular AWE growth. However, key indicators of UK inflation persistence remain elevated. As anticipated, tighter monetary policy is leading to a looser labour market and is weighing on activity in the real economy more generally. Given the significant increase in Bank Rate since the start of this tightening cycle, the current monetary policy stance is restrictive. At this meeting, the Committee voted to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%.

The MPC will continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation. Monetary policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with the Committee’s remit. As illustrated by the November Monetary Policy Report projections, the Committee continues to judge that monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time. Further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures.

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