US-Verbrauchervertrauen leicht schwächer, Erwartung zur Inflation steigt

Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (1. Veröffentlichung für April), das stark beachtet wird vor allem wegen der Erwartungen der Konsumenten zur Inflation, ist mit 77,9 Punkten schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 79,0; Vormonat war 79,4).

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 79,3 (Prognose war 82,2; Vormonat war 82,5)

Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 77,0 (Prognose war 77,6; Vormonat war 77,4)

Erwartungen zur Inflation:
1 Jahr: Von 2,9% jetzt auf 3,1%
5 Jahre: Von 2,8% nun auf 3,0%.

Dazu schreibt Joanne Hsu, die die Umfrage verantwortet:

„Sentiment moved sideways for the fourth straight month, as consumers perceived few meaningful developments in the economy. Since January, sentiment has remained remarkably steady within a very narrow 2.5 index point range, well under the 5 points necessary for a statistically significant difference in readings. Consumers perceived little change in the state of the economy since the start of the new year. Expectations over personal finances, business conditions, and labor markets have all been stable over the last four months. However, a slight uptick in inflation expectations in April reflects some frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled. Overall, consumers are reserving judgment about the economy in light of the upcoming election, which, in the view of many consumers, could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 2.9% last month to 3.1% this month, lifting just above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations also edged up, from 2.8% last month to 3.0% this month.“