Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für März), das stark beachtet wird wegen der Erwartungen der Konsumenten zur Inflation, ist mit 63,4 schlechter ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose 66,9 / Vormonat war 67).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 66,4 (Prognose 70 / Vormonat war 70,7)
Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 61,5 (Prognose 64,5 / Vormonat war 64,7)
Erwartungen zur Inflation:
1 Jahr: 3,8 % (Vormonat 4,1 %)
5 Jahre: 2,8 % (Vormonat 2,9 %)
Dazu Joanne Hsu, die die Umfrage verantwortet:
Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months, sitting about 5% below February but remaining 7% above a year ago. This month’s decrease was already fully realized prior to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, at which time about 85% of our interviews for this preliminary release had been completed. Sentiment declines were concentrated among lower-income, less-educated, and younger consumers, as well as consumers with the top tercile of stock holdings. Overall, all components of the index worsened relatively evenly, primarily on the basis of persistently high prices, creating downward momentum for sentiment leading into the financial turmoil that began last week.
Year-ahead inflation expectations receded from 4.1% in February to 3.8%, the lowest reading since April 2021, but remain well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations edged down to 2.8%, falling below the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for only the second time in the last 20 months. Long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. With ongoing turbulence in the financial sector and uncertainty over the Fed’s possible policy response, inflation expectations are likely to be volatile in the months ahead.
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