Die Bank of England hat vor wenigen Augenblicken ihre Zinsentscheidung verkündet. Der Leitzins wird von 3,5 % auf 4,0 % angehoben, bei Markterwartungen von 4,0 %. Im Notenbankrat wurde diese Entscheidung mi 7 gegen 2 Stimmen gefällt. Das britische Pfund reagiert gegenüber dem US-Dollar mit +32 Pips auf 1,2365.
Hier die Verkündung der Bank of England im Wortlaut:
Global consumer price inflation remains high, although it is likely to have peaked across many advanced economies, including in the United Kingdom. Wholesale gas prices have fallen recently and global supply chain disruption appears to have eased amid a slowing in global demand. Many central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy, although market pricing indicates reductions in policy rates further ahead.
UK domestic inflationary pressures have been firmer than expected. Both private sector regular pay growth and services CPI inflation have been notably higher than forecast in the November Monetary Policy Report. The labour market remains tight by historical standards, although it has started to loosen and some survey indicators of wage growth have eased, alongside a gradual decline in underlying output. Given the lags in monetary policy transmission, the increases in Bank Rate since December 2021 are expected to have an increasing impact on the economy in the coming quarters.
Near-term data developments will be crucial in assessing how quickly and to what extent external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate. As set out in the accompanying February Monetary Policy Report, the MPC’s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current very elevated level, of 10.5% in December, in large part owing to past increases in energy and other goods prices falling out of the calculation of the annual rate. Annual CPI inflation is expected to fall to around 4% towards the end of this year, alongside a much shallower projected decline in output than in the November Report forecast.
In the latest modal forecast, conditioned on a market-implied path for Bank Rate that rises to around 4½% in mid-2023 and falls back to just over 3¼% in three years’ time, an increasing degree of economic slack, alongside falling external pressures, leads CPI inflation to decline to below the 2% target in the medium term. There are considerable uncertainties around this medium-term outlook, and the Committee continues to judge that the risks to inflation are skewed significantly to the upside.
The MPC’s remit is clear that the inflation target applies at all times, reflecting the primacy of price stability in the UK monetary policy framework. The framework recognises that there will be occasions when inflation will depart from the target as a result of shocks and disturbances. The economy has been subject to a sequence of very large and overlapping shocks. Monetary policy will ensure that, as the adjustment to these shocks continues, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term. Monetary policy is also acting to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at the 2% target.
The Committee has voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 4%, at this meeting. Headline CPI inflation has begun to edge back and is likely to fall sharply over the rest of the year as a result of past movements in energy and other goods prices. However, the labour market remains tight and domestic price and wage pressures have been stronger than expected, suggesting risks of greater persistence in underlying inflation.
The extent to which domestic inflationary pressures ease will depend on the evolution of the economy, including the impact of the significant increases in Bank Rate so far. There are considerable uncertainties around the outlook. The MPC will continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures, including the tightness of labour market conditions and the behaviour of wage growth and services inflation. If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.
Looking further ahead, the MPC will adjust Bank Rate as necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.
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Ich reise jedes Jahr ,mindestens für einmal nach London, meistens mehrmals. Im Januar war ich wieder dort. Die Preise sind explodiert.
Demgegenüber steht eine Notenbank, die im Gegensatz zur Jahrtausendwende, die Inflation nicht energisch genug bekämpft.
Leitzinsen von 4 Prozent- stehen Raten von über 8 Prozent gegenüber. Also mehr als das Doppelte an Inflation.
Zur Jahrtausendwende war’s genau umgekehrt, Zinsen bei 6 und Inflation bei 3 Prozent.
Es ist unwahrscheinlich das durch die heutige Zinserhöhung die Inflation sinkt.
Ich bleibe dabei: Ohne positive Realzinsen werden die Inflationen -aller Währungsräume- nicht nachhaltig sinken, das wissen die VWLer aus dem Studium und der empirischen Forschung.
Die Notenbanken sind meiner Meinung nach viel zu zögerlich bei der Inflationsbekämpfung. Die Zinsen müssen viel schneller, viel rascher steigen und wenn sie das nicht können, in viel größeren Schritten.