Wirtschaft USA: ISM-Index Gewerbe schwach – Zinsen belasten

Neue Zahlen zur Wirtschaft der USA: Der ISM Index (Gewerbe im Juni) ist mit 48,5 Punkten schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 49,2; Vormonat war 48,7).

Die Komponenten:

– Beschäftigung 49,3 (Vormonat war 51,1)

– Neuaufträge 49,3 (Vormonat war 45,4)

– Preise 52,1 (Vormonat war 57,0, heute erwartet war 55,8 – alle Werte über 50 bedeuten steigende Preise!)

Marktreaktion: US-Indizes etwas höher, die zuvor stark gestiegenen Renditen wieder etwas tiefer (10-jährige bei 4,44%) – die hohen Zinsen belasten (siehe unten)

Dazu kommentiert ISM:

“U.S. manufacturing activity continued in contraction at the close of the second quarter. Demand was weak again, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative. Demand slowing was reflected by the (1) New Orders Index improving to marginal contraction, (2) New Export Orders Index returning to contraction, (3) Backlog of Orders Index dropping into stronger contraction territory, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index moving into the low side of the ‘just right’ range, neutral for future production. Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) declined compared to May, with a combined 3.5-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Panelists’ companies reduced production levels month over month as head count reductions continued in June. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Prices Index eased but remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory; the index registered its second month of cooling increases.

“Demand remains subdued, as companies demonstrate an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current monetary policy and other conditions. Production execution was down compared to the previous month, likely causing revenue declines, putting pressure on profitability. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and shortages not as severe. Sixty-two percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in June, up from 55 percent in May. More concerning is the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 14 percent in June, 10 percentage points higher than the 4 percent reported in May,”