Die US-Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für März) ist mit 97,8 besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 95,5; Vormonat war 93,8).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 111,2 (Prognose war 111,0; Vormonat war 108,5)
Die Konjunkturerwatung liegt bei 89,2 (Prognose war 86,0; Vormonat war 84,4)
Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, der die Umfrage verantwortet:
„The early March gain in sentiment was entirely due to households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds of the distribution, whose sentiment rose to 97.4 from 90.0 in February. Sentiment fell among households with incomes in the top third to 98.5 in early March from 101.7 in February. The difference that accounted for the divergence was how households evaluated their personal finances, as lower income households expressed much more positive assessments. The divergence was due to a monthly jump of one-percentage point in income expectations among middle and lower incomes compared to a change of just one-tenth of a percentage point among those with incomes in the top third. Rising income expectations were accompanied by lower expected year-ahead inflation rates, resulting in more favorable real income expectations (see the chart). Moreover, all income groups voiced more positive prospects for growth in the overall economy during the year ahead. Since households with incomes in the top third account for more than half of all consumer expenditures, cautious observers will conclude that the latest data are another indication that the end of the expansion is on the distant horizon. While that may well be true, the current level of consumer sentiment at 97.8 hardly indicates an emerging downturn; even among households with incomes in the top third, the Sentiment Index is 98.5, and 97.4 in the bottom two-thirds. The data indicate that real consumption will grow by 2.6% in 2019 and that the expansion will set a new record length by mid year.“
Von Andreas Faessler – Eigenes Werk, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=50681126
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Diese Verbraucherstimmung kommt wirklich nicht überraschend. Ich hatte vor einer Woche (Die US-Konsumorgie bekommt gerade neues Futter…) darüber berichtet, dass 79% der Amerikaner ab Februar ihre Steuerrückerstattungen (tax refunds) erhalten und dass dies für 29% der Konsumenten den großen Zahltag darstellt. Und einer Studie zufolge wird bereits in der Woche darauf viel in Konsum umgesetzt.
Ein typisches Verhalten des US-Konsumenten, welches durch Trumps Steuerreform nochmals einen Push erhalten hat.