Aber wenn Service einbricht, kommt die Rezession! ISM Dienstleistung miserabel – Wall Street jubelt

Neue Daten für die Wirtschaft der USA: soeben wurde der ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex für Dienstleistungen für den Monat Dezember veröffentlicht:

Der Hauptindex liegt bei 50,6 und damit deutlich schlechter als erwartet (Prognose war 52,6; Vormonat war 52,7).

Die Komponenten:

– Preise 57,4 (Vormonat war 58,3) – damit steigen die Preise zum Vormonat weiter (alle Werte über 50 signalisieren steigende Preise)

– Auftragseingang 52,8 (Vormonat war 55,5)

– Beschäftigung 43,3 (Vormonat war 50,7)

– Geschäftsaktivität 56,6 (Vormonat 55,1)

Marktreaktion: die Wall Street freut sich! Denn Dienstleistung ist der Bereich, der bislang boomte und vor allem Inflations-Druck ausübte. US-Renditen und Dollar jetzt deutlich tiefer. Aber wenn der Service-Sektor einbrechen sollte, hat auch die Wall Street früher oder später ein Problem. Dieses Problem heißt dann: Rezession!

Zu den Daten schreibt ISM:

“In December, the Services PMI® registered 50.6 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than November’s reading of 52.7 percent. The composite index indicated growth in December for the 12th consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 56.6 percent, a 1.5-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 55.1 percent in November. The New Orders Index expanded in December for the 12th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 52.8 percent is 2.7 percentage points lower than the November reading of 55.5 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49.5 percent, 0.1 percentage point below the 49.6 percent recorded in November. The index remained in contraction territory for the third consecutive month, indicating that supplier delivery performance was ‘faster’ in contrast to the ‘slowing’ status in September. In the last 11 months, the average reading of 48.3 percent (with a low of 45.8 in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 57.4 percent in December, a 0.9-percentage point decrease from the November reading of 58.3 percent. The Inventories Index contracted in December, registering 49.6 percent, a decrease of 5.8 percentage points from November’s figure of 55.4 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (55.3 percent, down 6.9 percentage points from November’s reading of 62.2 percent) expanded for the eighth consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index contracted in December for the second consecutive month, registering 49.4 percent, a 0.3-percentage point increase compared to the November reading of 49.1 percent.

“Nine industries reported growth in December. The Services PMI®, by being above 50 percent for the 12th month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector, though at a slower rate in December.”

Nieves continues, “The services sector had a pullback in the rate of growth in December, attributed to the decrease in the rate of growth for new orders and contraction in employment. Respondents’ comments vary by both company and industry. There are concerns related to economic uncertainty, geopolitical events and labor constraints.”