Ziemlich hawkish! US-Notenbank Fed lässt Zinsen unverändert – erwartet nur eine Senkung in 2024!

Wie erwartet läßt die US-Notenbank Fed die Zinsen unverändert bei 5,25% bis 5,50%.

Die Dot Plots (Zins-Erwartung der Fed-Mitglieder) zeigen: die US-Notenbanker erwarten nur noch eine Senkung in 2024 (im März noch drei). Das ist hawkish! Für 2025 erwarten sie vier Senkungen.

Hier die wichtigsten Aussagen aus dem Statement der US-Notenbank in Headlines:

– FED PROJECTIONS SHOW 4 OF 19 OFFICIALS SAW NO RATE CUT IN 2024; 7 SAW 1 CUT; 8 SAW 2 CUTS

– „moderate“ Fortschritte bei Inflation: „modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective“

The biggest surprise in the dot plot: 3 cuts in 2024 revised to just 1 cut pic.twitter.com/9xtnZy6CdE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 12, 2024

Das Statement der Fed im Wortlaut:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.